TG Therapeutics TGTX
Healthcare · Biotechnology · Synthos Deep Dive · 2026-07-06
The Overview
TG Therapeutics sells one medicine that matters: Briumvi, an infusion for relapsing multiple sclerosis. It competes in a big, established market against much larger companies, and it is winning share fast — sales nearly doubled last year and grew almost 70% again in the most recent quarter.
The catch comes in three parts. First, it's a one-product company — about 98% of revenue is that single drug, so anything that slows it (competition, safety news, insurance pushback) hits everything at once. Second, the profits on paper aren't cash yet: last year the company reported a big net profit, but most of it came from a one-time tax accounting benefit, and actual cash from operations was slightly negative because customers owe it a growing pile of unpaid bills. Third, the stock has already sprinted — up about 65% in three months, sitting at its 52-week high, with momentum gauges flashing overbought.
Here's what our three scores mean in everyday terms:
- Downside Risk 7/10 (fairly high). Solid balance sheet and real revenue, but one product, an overheated chart, and profits that haven't turned into cash yet.
- Growth Quality 6/10 (decent). The growth is genuine and gross margins are excellent, but the earnings are lower-quality than the headlines suggest.
- Exponential Potential 6/10 (moderate-high). Analysts see revenue more than tripling by 2030 and the company is still small — real room to run — but the growth rate is slowing, not speeding up.
The one big worry: if Briumvi's launch curve bends — a rival drug, a pricing/reimbursement squeeze, or a safety headline — there is no second product to catch the fall, and a stock at its highs would fall hard.
Putting a number on it: our fair-value estimate is $64 against a current price of $53.93 — real upside if our numbers are right.
Our summary metrics
Single-product (Briumvi ~98% of revenue) commercial biotech sitting at its 52-week high with RSI 74, TTM operating cash flow negative on a 204-day receivables build, and four straight quarterly EPS misses — the 5.8× current ratio is the main brake.
Revenue +87% FY25 on an 83% gross margin is real, but FY25 GAAP EPS was flattered by a ~$340M deferred-tax benefit, cash conversion is poor (FY25 OCF −$25M), and stock comp runs ~10% of revenue.
~25% forward revenue / ~40% EPS CAGR on only an $8.5B cap leaves genuine room, but growth is decelerating (+87% → +53%E → +30%E) and it is a single-asset story — a fast grower, not a true accelerating exponential.
What does “fair value” mean?
Fair value is Synthos’s estimate of what one share is worth today, based on our model of the company’s future cash generation and the risks to it. It is not a price target or a prediction of where the stock trades next quarter — it’s the price where we think risk and reward are balanced. Above it, you’re paying for outcomes better than our base case; below it, the market is offering a margin of safety.
The model’s inputs and weightings are proprietary — they’re the product. What we publish is the output, We don’t publish a reverse-DCF cross-check for pre-profit companies — negative or missing earnings break that math — so take this number on our modeling alone.
What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Exponential Potential
~25% forward revenue / ~40% EPS CAGR on only an $8.5B cap leaves genuine room, but growth is decelerating (+87% → +53%E → +30%E) and it is a single-asset story — a fast grower, not a true accelerating exponential.
What could take this further than the base case — and where the market may be underpricing it. Full forward-growth and acceleration math in Deeper analysis, §4 below.
Clinical pipeline
Clinical-trial data for TGTX hasn’t been pulled yet — check back soon.
Deeper analysis
Technicals, fundamentals, valuation, and the full expert-claim evidence panel — the detail behind the numbers above.
Reference table
| Street consensus | $64 (high $83 / low $39 / median $70; 11 Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell) — our anchor, thin coverage |
| Valuation | 17.4× trailing EPS (tax-gain-flattered) · ~41× 2026E · ~21× 2027E · ~16× 2028E · EV/S 12.6× · EV/EBITDA 58.6× |
| Technicals | Stretched — $55.47, −0.6% off the 52-wk high ($55.83), RSI(14) 73.6 (overbought), +110% off the low, +65% in 3 months |
| Conviction | Low — 0 KB claims, no expert voices; fundamentals + quant only |
| Position sizing | None yet — Watch; if triggered near ~$44–48, a satellite 1–2% is the right size for a single-drug biotech |
What the experts actually said
No independent expert claims in the Synthos knowledge base yet for TGTX — this dive is fundamentals- and technicals-driven, not panel-driven.
Price & moving averages 12 months · 50 & 200-day averages · 52-week range
Solid line = price · dashed line = 50-day average · dotted line = 200-day average · the two thin horizontal lines mark the 52-week high and low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.
Data summary: last close $53.93, 1% above the 50-day average ($53), 40% above the 200-day average ($38) — an uptrend. 9% below the 52-week high of $59, 100% above the 52-week low of $27.
Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations
The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.
Data summary: price $53.93 is currently inside the band (band $45–$57).
RSI (14) momentum gauge · 0–100
Above 70 (overbought zone, shaded) = overbought, below 30 (oversold zone, shaded) = oversold. Currently 55.
MACD 12 / 26 / 9 · trend & momentum
The MACD line crossing above the signal line (bars flip to the up color) = momentum turning up; crossing below (bars flip to the down color) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.
Data summary: MACD is currently above its signal line by 0.61, positive momentum.
Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLV (sector)), set to 100 a year ago
Solid = TGTX · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLV (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.
Forward revenue & earnings actual → estimate · "FY" = fiscal year, "E" = estimate
Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.
Key stats an RIA wants
1. What it is
TG Therapeutics (Nasdaq: TGTX) is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company based in New York City (CEO Michael S. Weiss; ~352 full-time employees; IPO 2010). Its business today is effectively one product: Briumvi (ublituximab), a glycoengineered anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis, competing in the established anti-CD20 MS market against far larger incumbents.
Revenue mix (FY2025, from filings): Product $606.9M (98.5%) · Royalty $5.6M · Other $3.6M · License $0.15M — of $616.3M total. This is as concentrated as a commercial story gets.
Geography: segment data (latest available, FY2024) shows international revenue of just $3.7M against $313.7M of product sales — this is essentially a US-only launch today, which is both the risk (one payer system) and the option (ex-US expansion is mostly still ahead). FY2025 geographic split is not in our data — flagged honestly.
Data caveat: the FMP company profile text still describes the pre-2023 pipeline (umbralisib, cosibelimab, TG-1701, TG-1801). That description is stale; the segment data above is the ground truth — this is now a Briumvi company. Our data file contains no current pipeline detail, so we make no claims about it.
2. The expert thesis (traceable)
No expert-panel coverage — this note is fundamentals-driven. A search of the Synthos knowledge base returns zero traceable claims on TGTX from any tracked voice, bullish or bearish. That is the honest house standard for screen-surfaced names: this company entered coverage via the quant momentum screen, not via conviction from the expert panel. Consequences, applied deliberately:
- Conviction is scored Low regardless of how good the fundamentals look — there is no independent expert underwriting to lean on.
- The bull and bear cases in §3 are built entirely from the reported financials, analyst consensus, and the technical picture.
- Street context (11 Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell, consensus target $64) is used as the valuation anchor, with the caveat that estimate breadth is thin (5–6 analysts on 2026–2028 numbers, only 1–2 on 2029–2030).
3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases
The one-glance judgment — three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics:
| Score | 0–10 | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Downside Risk (lower = safer) | 7 · High | Current ratio 5.8× and $142M cash + short-term investments (+$59M long-term) against $261M total debt are the brakes. Against them: ~98% single-product revenue, RSI 73.6 at the 52-week high, negative TTM operating cash flow (income quality −0.03), DSO of 204 days, net-debt/EBITDA 2.07×, beta 1.6, and four consecutive quarterly EPS misses. |
| Growth Quality | 6 · High-ish | Revenue +87% FY25, gross margin 83%, FY25 operating margin 20.0%, ROIC ~11%. But FY25 GAAP net income ($447.2M) rests on a ~$340M deferred-tax benefit (pre-tax income was only $107.4M), FY25 FCF was −$25.0M, and stock comp is ~10% of revenue. Real growth, mediocre earnings quality. |
| Exponential Potential | 6 · Moderate-High | Consensus revenue $941M (2026E) → $2.26B (2030E), a ~25% CAGR, with EPS compounding ~40% off a small base — on only an $8.5B cap. But the second derivative is negative (+87% → +53%E → +30%E → +28%E → +25%E → +15%E) and it is one asset. Room to run, not acceleration. |
The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions labeled; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value). We do not attach probabilities: the base case is the expected path; the cases bound the range.
| Case | Key assumptions | Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Briumvi share gains continue; 2028E EPS lands at/above consensus $3.38 and cash conversion normalizes; the market pays ~25× 2028 power for a profitable share-taker. In line with the Street high ($83). | ~$83 (+50%) |
| Base (our anchor) | Estimates roughly hit — 2027E EPS ~$2.66; a single-product story earns a discounted ~24× next-year multiple (≈19× 2028E). Lands on the Street consensus $64 — anchored there deliberately, given zero expert coverage. | ~$64 (+15%) |
| Bear | Launch curve bends — competition/pricing slows growth, 2027E EPS misses toward ~$2.25 (the consensus low) and the multiple compresses to ~17× as the one-product discount asserts itself. ≈ Street low ($39). | ~$39 (−30%) |
Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$64 (+15%), full range $39–$83 (a 2.1× bull/bear ratio). +15% to base fair value is not enough margin to buy a single-product biotech at its 52-week high on RSI 74 with no expert underwriting — that is the whole verdict. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures.
4. Exponential Potential
Synthos separates compounders from exponentials (accelerating, multibaggers-from-here). TGTX is a fast grower that is decelerating — the opposite second-derivative profile from a true exponential:
- Forward growth: consensus revenue $941.5M (2026E) → $1.23B → $1.57B → $1.96B → $2.26B (2030E) — a ~25% CAGR; EPS $1.36 (2026E) → $2.66 → $3.38 → $4.44 → $5.32 (2030E), ~40% CAGR as operating leverage lands.
- Acceleration (the 2nd derivative) is negative: +87.3% (FY25 actual) → +52.8% (2026E) → +30.4% (2027E) → +28.1% (2028E) → +24.8% (2029E) → +15.2% (2030E). Every year slower than the last. That caps the score at 6 despite the small base.
- Room to run: an $8.5B cap against $2.26B of 2030E revenue leaves genuine re-rating room — at ~16× 2028E earnings a doubling is arithmetic, not fantasy, if estimates hit. The constraint is asset concentration, not market size.
- Estimate-quality caveat (honest): the analyst feed's EBITDA/EBIT and SG&A estimate lines for TGTX are visibly corrupted (negative EBITDA against positive net income; SG&A in the tens of billions) — we use only the revenue and EPS consensus lines, and note coverage thins to 1–2 analysts beyond 2028.
Exponential Potential: 6/10. Small enough to multiply, growing fast — but decelerating and single-asset. A good growth story; not a true exponential.
5. Financials (real numbers — FMP annual/quarterly)
- Revenue: FY2025 $616.3M, +87.3% (FY2024 $329.0M, +40.8%; FY2023 $233.7M). TTM revenue ≈ $700M.
- Quarterly trajectory (clean staircase): Q1'25 $120.9M → Q2 $141.1M → Q3 $161.7M → Q4 $192.6M → Q1'26 $204.9M (+69.5% YoY). Sequential growth every quarter.
- Margins: gross 83.7% FY25 (83.6% in Q1'26) — pharma-grade. FY25 operating income $123.3M (20.0% margin); Q1'26 operating income $34.8M (17.0%). R&D $160.2M (26% of revenue) and SG&A $232.0M (38%) in FY25 — the launch is still expensive.
- Earnings quality — read carefully. FY25 GAAP net income of $447.2M / diluted EPS $2.77 is dominated by a ~$340M income-tax benefit (a deferred-tax-asset release booked in Q3'25, which alone showed $390.9M of net income on $25.9M of pre-tax income; the balance sheet now carries $348M of tax assets). Pre-tax income for FY25 was $107.4M — that is the real earnings base. Q1'26: net income $19.8M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.12 (the earnings-calendar "actual" of $0.17 is a non-GAAP basis; both shown, neither invented).
- Cash flow — the sore spot. FY25 operating cash flow was −$24.8M and FCF −$25.0M despite $447M of GAAP net income: receivables ballooned +$176.4M (DSO now 204 days) and inventory +$33.5M. Income-quality ratio −0.03. Until collections catch up with reported sales, the P&L is running ahead of the cash register.
- Balance sheet: cash + short-term investments $142.0M (plus $59.1M long-term investments) vs total debt $260.7M → net debt $181.6M, net-debt/EBITDA (TTM) 2.07×; current ratio 5.8×; equity $648.0M. Solvent and liquid, but not a fortress — and note equity was built partly by that deferred-tax release.
6. Valuation — priced in or room?
The trailing numbers flatter and mislead in opposite directions: 17.4× trailing P/E looks cheap but the "E" is tax-gain-inflated; EV/EBITDA 58.6×, EV/sales 12.6×, and P/B 13.7× tell the truer rich-multiple story. FMP's letter rating is B+ (overall 3/5; debt-to-equity and P/B score 1/5). The forward path is what matters: ~41× 2026E EPS ($1.36) → ~21× 2027E ($2.66) → ~16× 2028E ($3.38) → ~10× 2030E ($5.32) — the multiple compresses fast if the ramp lands. Street targets (context and anchor): consensus $64, median $70, high $83, low $39, on 11 Buy / 1 Hold / 1 Sell. Our base case sits on the consensus deliberately — with zero expert coverage, we have no independent edge to justify straying from it. The honest summary: modestly undervalued vs Street (+15%), but with an execution-dependent, single-asset multiple and a chart that has already prepaid a lot of the good news.
7. Technicals (from the tech block)
- Trend: strongly up. $55.47 sits far above the 50-DMA ($43.58) and 200-DMA ($34.77), 50 above 200 (golden-cross posture). MACD +3.63 (positive).
- Location: −0.6% off the 52-week high ($55.83) — it is the high — and +110% off the 52-week low ($26.39). Max drawdown from peak in the window: −0.6%, i.e., no meaningful pullback yet.
- Momentum: RSI(14) 73.6 — overbought (above the classic 70 line). This is a stretched entry by definition.
- Relative strength: +65.4% 3-mo vs SPY +14.6% / QQQ +23.6%; +86.1% 6-mo vs SPY +10.2%; +52.9% 12-mo vs SPY +21.1% / QQQ +31.2%. Genuine leadership — and a lot of banked good news.
- Read: technicals are strong but stretched. For a Watch name, the actionable zone is a reversion toward the rising 50-DMA (~$44) or any orderly consolidation in the high-$40s; chasing an overbought 52-week high in a single-drug biotech is how good stories become bad entries.
8. Moat & competitive position
The moat is narrow and product-specific: Briumvi's glycoengineered anti-CD20 profile and its infusion economics in relapsing MS, plus the switching stickiness of chronic MS therapy once patients are established. Working against it: the anti-CD20 MS market is owned by much larger, better-capitalized incumbents, and TGTX has no second commercial asset in our data to diversify the franchise. An 83% gross margin shows pricing integrity today; a 204-day DSO hints at the channel/payer friction of competing as the small vendor.
Peer set (FMP-supplied, market cap): Arcellx $6.7B, Alkermes $9.2B, Arrowhead $12.2B, CRISPR Therapeutics $6.0B, Immunovant $7.9B, Krystal Biotech $11.0B, Kymera $9.4B, Vaxcyte $8.2B, PTC Therapeutics $7.1B, Protagonist $8.5B. Caveat: this is a mid-cap-biotech size cohort, not a competitive set — TGTX's actual competitors in anti-CD20 MS (the large-cap pharma incumbents) are absent from the supplied list. Within the cohort shown, TGTX is one of the few with real product revenue and GAAP profitability.
9. Management, capital allocation & guidance
- Capital allocation: FY25 saw $91.2M of buybacks (net stock issuance −$89.7M) and no dividend — notable confidence for a company with negative FY25 operating cash flow, funded from the balance sheet. Capex is negligible (~$0.2M; asset-light, manufacturing evidently outsourced). Stock comp $64.7M FY25 (~10.5% of revenue) — high, and a real cost to holders.
- Insider activity (from Form 4 data): June 2026 filings are routine director stock-tracking-unit awards (5 directors, 8,325 units each, price $0). CEO Michael S. Weiss was awarded 622,000 shares on 2026-01-08 (award, not a purchase), bringing his direct holding to ~9.78M shares — a very large aligned stake. Director Charney gifted 43,197 shares in January. No open-market purchases or sales appear in the data — no smoke either way.
- Guidance: our data file contains no management guidance transcript for TGTX (no earnings-call ingest on this plan) — stated honestly rather than paraphrased from memory. The estimate table above is analyst consensus, not company guidance.
10. Catalysts & what to watch
- Next earnings: 2026-08-03 (Q2 2026; Street EPS $0.43, revenue ~$228.5M). The two lines that matter: sequential Briumvi revenue growth (the staircase must keep climbing) and operating cash flow / receivables (does cash finally follow the P&L?).
- The EPS-miss pattern: actuals have missed estimates four straight prints (0.17 vs 0.23; 0.14 vs 0.35; the Q3'25 2.43 "beat" was the tax gain; 0.17 vs 0.32; 0.03 vs 0.18) while revenue roughly delivered — spending runs hotter than models. A quarter that beats on both lines would be a genuine upgrade to the story.
- Ex-US expansion: international revenue was ~1% of product sales in the last reported split — any real ex-US traction is upside not yet in the run-rate.
- Competitive/label news in anti-CD20 MS: the single-asset concentration makes every competitor readout a TGTX event.
Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): two consecutive quarters of decelerating sequential Briumvi growth; DSO failing to come down from ~204 days by year-end; operating cash flow still negative for FY26; or a competitive/safety event in the MS anti-CD20 class. On the upside: a pullback to ~$44–48 with the growth staircase intact converts this Watch into a tactical buy candidate.
11. Key risks
- Single-product concentration (the dominant risk): ~98% of revenue is one drug in one indication, essentially one country. Any Briumvi stumble — competition, pricing, safety, reimbursement — has no offset.
- Cash conversion / receivables: −$24.8M FY25 operating cash flow against +$447M reported net income, with 204-day DSO, is the classic pattern that either normalizes (fine) or signals channel strain (not fine). It must resolve.
- Earnings quality: the FY25 headline EPS is ~76% a deferred-tax accounting event; the real pre-tax base is $107.4M. Screens showing "17× P/E" overstate the cheapness.
- Entry-point / momentum risk: RSI 73.6 at the 52-week high after +110% off the low — a stretched chart with a 1.6 beta re-rates violently on any miss (and this company has missed EPS four prints running).
- Competitive: the anti-CD20 MS incumbents are far larger; TGTX wins by share-taking, which invites response.
- Estimate fragility: only 5–6 analysts on near-year numbers, 1–2 beyond 2028, and visible data corruption in the non-revenue estimate lines — the consensus anchor is thinner than it looks.
- No expert underwriting: zero KB claims means no independent high-skill voice has been vetted on this thesis — conviction is capped at Low by construction.
12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring
Watch. The business has done something genuinely rare — a small biotech converting a single approved antibody into $616M of revenue (+87%), 83% gross margins, and GAAP operating profitability — and the Street's $64 consensus (our base fair value) still sits ~15% above the price. But the setup fails the entry test on every discretionary margin: the stock is at its 52-week high with RSI 74 after a +65% quarter, the reported earnings are tax-gain-flattered while operating cash flow is negative, EPS has missed four straight quarters, revenue is ~98% one product, and there is no expert-panel voice underwriting the story. +15% to a thinly-covered consensus is not enough compensation for that stack of risks at this price.
- The trigger: a pullback toward ~$44–48 (the rising 50-DMA at $43.58 / high-$40s consolidation) with the sequential Briumvi staircase intact — or a both-lines beat on 2026-08-03 with positive operating cash flow — re-opens the case as a tactical buy. Size, if triggered: satellite, 1–2%, sized for a single-drug biotech that can gap hard.
- Monitoring: re-underwrite on the §10 tripwires; formal re-score at each print (next 2026-08-03). This verdict is logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-06 at $55.47.
- Single biggest risk: one drug is the whole company — a bend in Briumvi's launch curve breaks the model, and a stock at its highs would take the elevator down.
Provenance & disclosures
- Traceability: 0 KB claims, 0 voices — no expert-panel coverage exists for TGTX in the Synthos knowledge base; nothing was fabricated to fill the gap, and
kb_net_convictionis null by construction. This dive is built from FMP fundamentals, analyst consensus, and the technical block only. - Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-03-31 (Q1 2026, filed 2026-05-06) · estimates & prices 2026-07-06 · KB claims: none. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP), labeled as estimates.
- Earnings-quality caveat: FY25 GAAP EPS ($2.77 diluted) is dominated by a ~$340M deferred-tax benefit booked in Q3'25; pre-tax income was $107.4M and FY25 operating cash flow was −$24.8M. Underwrite the pre-tax/cash figures. Q1'26 GAAP diluted EPS was $0.12; the $0.17 "actual" in the earnings calendar is a non-GAAP basis.
- Estimate caveat: the FMP estimate feed's EBITDA/EBIT and SG&A lines for TGTX are visibly corrupted (negative EBITDA vs positive net income; SG&A in the billions); only the revenue and EPS consensus lines are used. Coverage is thin (5–6 analysts near-term, 1–2 for 2029–2030).
- Profile caveat: the FMP company-description text is stale (pre-2023 pipeline); segment data (Product $606.9M of $616.3M FY25) is the ground truth used here. Geographic split is only available through FY2024 (~99% US).
- Peer caveat: the FMP-supplied peer list is a size cohort, not the competitive set — Briumvi's actual anti-CD20 MS competitors (large-cap pharma) are absent.
- Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
- Version: 2026-07-06. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").