Alliant Energy LNT
Utilities · Regulated Electric · Synthos Deep Dive · 2026-07-03
The Overview
Alliant Energy is a power and gas company for about a million homes and businesses in Iowa and Wisconsin. It is a regulated monopoly: state regulators let it earn a set, fairly predictable profit on the poles, wires, and power plants it builds. That makes the earnings steady and the dividend (~2.7% a year) reliable — this is a "sleep-well" utility, not a rocket ship.
Right now the stock is priced about right, maybe a touch expensive. You're paying roughly $23 for every $1 of next year's earnings, which is on the high side for a utility that grows earnings only about 6-8% a year. It just hit a 52-week high, so you'd be buying at the top of its recent range. Our verdict is Watch — a fine business, but wait for a cheaper price.
Here's what our three scores mean in everyday terms:
- Downside Risk 5/10 (middle of the road). The business barely swings with the economy and pays a steady dividend, but it carries a lot of debt (about $12 billion) and pays a full price today, so there's little cushion.
- Growth Quality 5/10 (average). Reliable, slow-and-steady growth. Nothing wrong with it, nothing thrilling.
- Exponential Potential 4/10 (low). The new data-center customers are a genuine tailwind, but a regulated utility can only grow so fast — don't expect it to double quickly.
The one big worry: Alliant borrows heavily to build power plants and grid. If interest rates rise or regulators refuse to let it recover its costs, both earnings and the dividend get squeezed.
Putting a number on it: our fair-value estimate is $79 against a current price of $68.03 — real upside if our numbers are right.
Our summary metrics
Low beta (0.55) & regulated cash flows, but 5.7× net-debt/EBITDA leverage and 22× forward P/E for ~8% growth.
~6-8% EPS CAGR, rising rate base, single-digit ROE ~11%; steady but not high-quality compounding.
Data-center demand (3.4 GW contracted) is a real accelerant, but a regulated utility caps the multiple and the upside.
What does “fair value” mean?
Fair value is Synthos’s estimate of what one share is worth today, based on our model of the company’s future cash generation and the risks to it. It is not a price target or a prediction of where the stock trades next quarter — it’s the price where we think risk and reward are balanced. Above it, you’re paying for outcomes better than our base case; below it, the market is offering a margin of safety.
The model’s inputs and weightings are proprietary — they’re the product. What we publish is the output, plus an independent, public-math cross-check further down the page (“Check our number”) so you can judge it for yourself.
What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Exponential Potential
Data-center demand (3.4 GW contracted) is a real accelerant, but a regulated utility caps the multiple and the upside.
What could take this further than the base case — and where the market may be underpricing it. Full forward-growth and acceleration math in Deeper analysis, §4 below.
Deeper analysis
Technicals, fundamentals, valuation, and the full expert-claim evidence panel — the detail behind the numbers above.
Reference table
| Street consensus | $76.2 (high $81 / low $74; 12 Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell) — context, not our anchor |
| Valuation | 24.5× trailing EPS · 22.8× FY26E · 21.2× FY27E · 16.5× FY30E · EV/S 7.2× · EV/EBITDA 15.5× |
| Technicals | Uptrend but overbought — $78.03 at the 52-wk high, above 50/200-DMA, RSI 76, +27% 12-mo (SPY +21%) |
| Conviction | Low — 0 expert voices in KB; verdict rests on fundamentals + quant, not conviction breadth |
| Position sizing | Income/defensive sleeve only, ~1–2% if at all; wait for a pullback |
What the experts actually said
No independent expert claims in the Synthos knowledge base yet for LNT — this dive is fundamentals- and technicals-driven, not panel-driven.
Price & moving averages 12 months · 50 & 200-day averages · 52-week range
Solid line = price · dashed line = 50-day average · dotted line = 200-day average · the two thin horizontal lines mark the 52-week high and low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.
Data summary: last close $68.03, 7% below the 50-day average ($73), 3% below the 200-day average ($70) — a downtrend. 13% below the 52-week high of $78, 7% above the 52-week low of $64.
Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations
The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.
Data summary: price $68.03 is currently inside the band (band $67–$71).
RSI (14) momentum gauge · 0–100
Above 70 (overbought zone, shaded) = overbought, below 30 (oversold zone, shaded) = oversold. Currently 36.
MACD 12 / 26 / 9 · trend & momentum
The MACD line crossing above the signal line (bars flip to the up color) = momentum turning up; crossing below (bars flip to the down color) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.
Data summary: MACD is currently below its signal line by 0.00, negative momentum.
Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLU (sector)), set to 100 a year ago
Solid = LNT · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLU (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.
Forward revenue & earnings actual → estimate · "FY" = fiscal year, "E" = estimate
Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.
Key stats an RIA wants
1. What it is
Alliant Energy (NASDAQ: LNT) is a Madison, Wisconsin-based utility holding company serving ~1,010,000 electric and ~435,000 natural-gas customers across Iowa and Wisconsin through two regulated subsidiaries: Interstate Power and Light (IPL, Iowa) and Wisconsin Power and Light (WPL, Wisconsin). It also owns small non-utility assets (a short-line railroad, a Mississippi River freight terminal, a gas peaker and a wind farm). Fiscal year ends December 31. CEO Lisa Barton; ~3,000 employees.
Revenue mix (FY2025, from filings):
- By product/segment: Electric $3.70B (85%) · Gas $525M (12%) · Other Utility $51M (1%). Overwhelmingly a regulated electric business.
- By geography: US-only (Iowa + Wisconsin). FMP provides no geographic split — this is a domestic Midwest utility with no international exposure.
The strategic story is electric rate-base growth driven by data-center load: management reports ~3.4 GW of contracted data-center demand across five executed electric-service agreements, including a new ~370 MW Iowa agreement signed in Q1'26. That demand is what turns a low-single-digit-growth utility into a ~6%+ EPS grower.
2. The expert thesis — why the panel is (not) covering it (traceable)
There is no expert coverage of LNT in the Synthos knowledge base: total_claims = 0, net-bullish voices = 0. No distilled analyst, podcast, or investor claim references this name. That is normal for a mid-cap regulated utility — it is not the kind of asymmetric, narrative-driven stock the expert panel tends to discuss.
What this means for the verdict: this call is entirely fundamentals- and quant-driven. There is no conviction breadth to lean on, so we do not claim any. Every number below is either a reported figure (FMP filings), an analyst consensus estimate (labeled as such), or our own scenario model. We fabricate no conviction and cite no claim_ids because none exist.
3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases
The one-glance judgment — three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics (not probabilities we can't honestly calibrate):
| Score | 0–10 | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Downside Risk (lower = safer) | 5 · Moderate | Beta 0.55 and regulated, recession-resistant cash flows are genuinely defensive, but 5.7× net-debt/EBITDA, a current ratio of 0.69, and ~23× forward earnings at a 52-wk high leave little cushion if rates rise or a rate case disappoints. |
| Growth Quality | 5 · Average | ~6-8% forward EPS CAGR on a rising rate base, ROE ~11%, but ROIC only ~4.3% and structurally negative free cash flow (capex > operating cash flow). Steady, not high-quality. |
| Exponential Potential | 4 · Low-Moderate | Data-center load (3.4 GW contracted) is a real, accelerating demand driver — rare for a utility — but the regulated model and a $20B cap keep this a compounder, not a multibagger. |
The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions shown; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value). We deliberately do not attach probabilities: the base case is the expected path, so a weighted blend would just restate it with false precision. The cases bound the range; the scores above summarize them.
| Case | Key assumptions | Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Data-center demand converts faster than planned; constructive rate outcomes; EPS beats to ~$3.85 (FY27) and the market pays a premium ~24× for the growth acceleration. | ~$92 (+18%) |
| Base (our anchor) | Guidance holds — FY27E EPS ~$3.68, ~6-7% EPS growth continues; a fair regulated-utility multiple of ~21.5×. | ~$79 (+1%) |
| Bear | Rising rates lift the discount on a leveraged utility; a rate-case disallowance or data-center slippage; EPS ~$3.50 (FY27) on a de-rated ~18×. | ~$63 (−19%) |
Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$79 (+1%), with the full $63–$92 span as the honest range. This anchor sits slightly above the Street's $76.2 consensus but implies essentially no margin of safety at $78. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures.
4. Exponential Potential
Synthos separates compounders (durable, steady returns) from exponentials (accelerating multi-baggers-from-here). LNT is a modest compounder with one genuinely interesting accelerant:
- Forward growth: revenue CAGR FY25→FY30E ~4.7% ($4.36B → $5.48B); EPS CAGR ~8.5% ($3.15 → $4.73 est) as rate base and data-center load grow faster than the customer count.
- Acceleration (the 2nd derivative): modestly positive — the data-center pipeline (3.4 GW contracted, up from a standing start) is pulling forward load growth above the historical ~6% earnings trend. This is the single feature that lifts the exponential score above a generic utility's.
- Room to run: a regulated utility earns a capped, regulator-set return on invested capital — there is no winner-take-all TAM to capture. The upside is bounded by allowed ROE and rate-base size, so a 3-5× from here is structurally implausible.
- Reinvestment runway: large and real — capex ~$2.5B/yr into generation, storage, and grid — but it is funded by debt and equity issuance, not free cash flow, which caps the compounding rate and dilutes shareholders over time.
Exponential Potential: Low-Moderate (4/10). Own it for a bond-like ~2.7% yield plus mid-single-digit rate-base growth, not for a fast multibagger. The data-center story is the one thing that could surprise to the upside — worth watching, not yet worth a premium.
5. Financials (real numbers — FMP annual/quarterly)
- Revenue: FY25 $4.36B, +9.6% (FY24 $3.98B; FY23 $4.03B). Utility revenue is weather- and rate-case-driven, so year-to-year moves are lumpy, not a growth signal.
- Quarterly trajectory: Q1'25 $1.13B → Q2 $0.96B → Q3 $1.21B → Q4 $1.06B → Q1'26 $1.18B (+5% YoY). Seasonal (Q1/Q3 peaks); no acceleration to read into.
- Margins: gross 38.0% TTM, EBITDA margin ~46%, operating ~23%, net 18.6% TTM. Stable regulated margins.
- Earnings: net income $810M FY25 (EPS $3.15), up from $690M FY24 (EPS $2.69) — a ~17% jump helped by rate relief and AFUDC. Q1'26 net income $224M (EPS $0.87 GAAP, $0.82 ongoing).
- Cash flow: operating CF $1.17B FY25, capex −$2.48B → free cash flow −$1.31B. FCF has been structurally negative every year (−$1.08B FY24, −$0.99B FY23) — this is normal for a utility in a heavy build cycle, but it means growth is funded externally and the dividend is paid from financing, not FCF.
- Balance sheet: total debt $12.35B, net debt $11.79B, net-debt/EBITDA ~5.7× — high in absolute terms but typical for regulated utilities with predictable cash flows and rate-base-backed assets ($20.3B net PP&E). Interest coverage is thin at ~1.9× (TTM), the key leverage watch-item.
6. Valuation — priced in or room?
LNT trades at 24.5× trailing EPS, 7.2× sales, 15.5× EV/EBITDA — a premium to its own utility-sector history (utilities often trade high-teens P/E). The bull's defense is that EPS grows into it: forward P/E is 22.8× (FY26E) → 21.2× (FY27E) → 16.5× (FY30E) on consensus. That is a reasonable multiple for a ~6-8% grower if the data-center growth is durable — but it is not cheap, and the ~2.7% dividend yield is only average for the sector. A PEG-style read (~23× / ~8% growth ≈ 2.9×) confirms you are paying up. Street targets (context): consensus $76.2, high $81, low $74 — a tight band that itself signals "fairly valued, limited upside." Our ~$79 base fair value sits inside that band. Not a value buy; a fairly-priced compounder with no margin of safety at today's price.
7. Technicals (from the tech block)
- Trend: up. $78.03 sits above the 50-DMA ($73.10) and 200-DMA ($69.42), with the 50 above the 200 (golden-cross posture). MACD +1.24 (positive).
- Location: at the 52-week high ($78.03) — 0% off the peak, +28% off the 52-week low ($60.76). No drawdown cushion; you'd be buying the top of the range.
- Momentum: RSI(14) 76 — overbought (>70). This is a stretched-entry warning: the stock has run and is due for consolidation or a pullback.
- Relative strength: LNT +27% 12-mo vs SPY +20.6% (and vs QQQ +30%); +8.5% 3-mo vs SPY +13.7%. Outperformed the market over 12 months but lagged over the last 3 — momentum cooling.
- Read: technicals say "good uptrend, bad entry." An overbought RSI at a 52-wk high argues for patience — a pullback toward the rising 50-DMA (~$73) would be a materially better risk/reward.
8. Moat & competitive position
Alliant's moat is regulatory, not competitive: as a state-sanctioned monopoly in its Iowa and Wisconsin service territories, it faces no direct customer competition. The "moat" is the regulatory compact — the right to earn an allowed return on rate base — and its durability depends entirely on constructive regulators (IPL's Iowa and WPL's Wisconsin commissions). The competitive risk is not a rival utility but regulatory disallowance, rate-case outcomes, and cost-recovery timing. The data-center demand pipeline strengthens the growth case but also concentrates it in a few large customers whose siting decisions can shift (as one already did from WPL to IPL in Q1'26).
Peer set (market cap, FMP-provided): CMS Energy $24.0B, Edison International $29.1B, Evergy $20.3B, NiSource $22.9B, Emera $16.4B, Algonquin $18.7B — the closest regulated-utility comps. (The list also includes non-comparable names: nuclear/SMR plays Oklo $9.1B and Fermi $5.1B, Korea Electric $16.0B, and Brazil's SABESP $19.7B.) Among true peers, LNT's ~23× forward multiple is at the richer end, justified only by the data-center growth premium.
9. Management, capital allocation & guidance
- Capital allocation: capex-forward — ~$2.5B/yr into generation, energy storage, and grid to grow rate base, funded by debt and equity (net debt +$1.4B in FY25; modest ongoing share issuance). Dividend is the priority return (paid $521M FY25, ~64% payout of ongoing EPS); no buybacks (appropriate for a capital-hungry utility).
- Insider activity: the sampled window (April 2026) is routine — director deferred-stock-unit awards and one small in-kind tax withholding by an EVP. No open-market discretionary selling or buying cluster to read into.
- Management's own guidance (the earnings-release track, half-weighted — they talk their own book): In the Q1'26 release (SEC 8-K, filed 2026-05-01), management reaffirmed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36–$3.46 and cited "over a decade" track record of >6% compound annual earnings growth. CEO Lisa Barton highlighted "continued momentum in data center growth," including the new ~370 MW Iowa agreement bringing total contracted data-center demand to ~3.4 GW across five executed agreements. Guidance assumes IPL/WPL earn authorized returns, normal weather, and execution of the capex/financing plan, with a consolidated effective tax rate of (29%). This is management's self-interested framing and is weighted accordingly; it is consistent with the analyst consensus (FY26E EPS $3.42).
10. Catalysts & what to watch
- Next earnings: 2026-08-06 (Q2'26; Street EPS $0.70, revenue ~$988M). Watch for guidance reaffirmation and any data-center agreement updates.
- Data-center agreements: new or expanded electric-service contracts (beyond the current 3.4 GW / five agreements) are the primary upside driver; customer siting shifts are the risk.
- Rate cases: IPL (Iowa) and WPL (Wisconsin) rate-relief outcomes — the direct lever on earnings; a disallowance is the main downside.
- Interest-rate path: as a leveraged utility, LNT's valuation and financing costs are rate-sensitive.
- Capex / in-service dates: on-time, on-budget delivery of generation and storage projects (tariff/supply-chain risk flagged in the 8-K).
Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): an unconstructive rate-case outcome; loss or slippage of a major data-center agreement; interest-coverage falling below ~1.7×; or a dividend-growth pause.
11. Key risks
- Leverage & rates (structural): $11.8B net debt, 5.7× net-debt/EBITDA, ~1.9× interest coverage. Rising rates raise financing costs and pressure the valuation of a bond-proxy stock.
- Regulatory disallowance: the entire return depends on IPL/WPL earning authorized rates; an adverse rate case or cost-recovery denial hits earnings directly.
- Valuation / no margin of safety: ~23× forward at a 52-wk high, overbought RSI — priced for continued execution with little cushion.
- Negative free cash flow: growth and the dividend are funded by external capital; a capital-markets shock or equity dilution is a real risk in a heavy build cycle.
- Data-center concentration: the growth premium rests on a few large customers whose siting/timing can shift (one already moved from WPL to IPL in Q1'26).
- Weather: retail sales swing with temperatures (each cited as ~$0.03–0.04/share in the 8-K).
12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring
Watch. Alliant is a well-managed regulated utility with a genuine, differentiated growth accelerant (3.4 GW of contracted data-center load) supporting its decade-plus ~6% EPS-growth record and a reliable ~2.7% dividend. But at ~23× forward earnings, at a 52-week high, with an overbought RSI of 76, on 5.7× net-debt/EBITDA, the stock already reflects that story — our ~$79 base fair value implies roughly 1% upside, with no margin of safety. There is no expert conviction in the Synthos KB to override the quant read.
- Sizing: if owned at all, an income/defensive holding at ~1–2%, and better initiated on a pullback toward the rising 50-DMA (~$73) than at today's stretched level.
- Monitoring: re-underwrite on the §10 tripwires; formal re-score each earnings print. This verdict is logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-03 at $78.03.
- Single biggest risk: rising rates or a regulatory disallowance on a highly leveraged, negative-FCF balance sheet.
Provenance & disclosures
- Traceability: 0 KB claims, breadth 0 — no expert coverage; this verdict is fundamentals- and quant-driven, and no claim_ids are cited because none exist. Fabricated conviction is structurally impossible (claim-ID reconciliation).
- Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-03-31 (Q1'26) · estimates & prices 2026-07-02/03 · management guidance from SEC 8-K filed 2026-05-01. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP) or our own scenario model, labeled as estimates.
- Management caveat: the reaffirmed $3.36–$3.46 guidance is management's own book, half-weighted by design.
- Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
- Version: 2026-07-03. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").