Fair Isaac FICO
Technology · Software - Application · Synthos Deep Dive · 2026-07-03
The Overview
FICO makes the credit score — the 300-to-850 number lenders use to decide if you get a mortgage, a car loan, or a credit card. 90% of top U.S. lenders use it. Every time a bank pulls your FICO score, FICO gets paid, and it has been steadily raising the price it charges, especially on mortgages. That is why profits are booming: revenue jumped 39% last quarter.
The catch has two parts. First, the stock is expensive — you pay about $40 for every $1 the company earned last year. Second — and this is why the stock has actually fallen about a third in the past year — Washington and the mortgage industry are pushing back on those price hikes, and a rival called VantageScore is being cleared for use in some government-backed mortgages. If regulators cap the pricing, the golden-goose part of the story dims.
Our verdict is Buy — Tactical: a wonderful business, now at a much fairer price after the drop, but with a real political cloud, so own a smaller position and buy in stages, not all at once.
Here is what our three scores mean in everyday terms:
- Downside Risk 6/10 (a bit above average). The business is a fortress, but the stock is pricey, carries real debt, swings more than the market, and has already fallen far — and the regulatory question is genuinely unresolved.
- Growth Quality 8/10 (very good). A monopoly with sky-high margins that keeps growing profits ~20% a year. Top-tier — just not perfect, because half the company (Software) grows only single digits.
- Exponential Potential 5/10 (moderate). It compounds nicely, but the core is mature and regulated, so don't expect it to multiply several-fold quickly.
The one big worry: the government and mortgage lenders forcing FICO to stop raising prices — or a competitor taking share — which would hit the most profitable part of the company.
Putting a number on it: our fair-value estimate is $1,510 against a current price of $1,153.57 — real upside if our numbers are right.
Our summary metrics
Monopoly economics & low leverage-risk, but 40× TTM, net-debt/EBITDA 3.0×, beta 1.28 and a −47% drawdown; mortgage-price regulation is the swing.
~20% forward EPS CAGR, 84% gross margin, ROIC ~53%, monopoly Scores franchise — elite quality, but Software is only a 7% grower.
Scores pricing + platform ARR (49% growth) are real legs, but a $29B cap on a mature, regulated core caps the multibagger; growth is steady, not accelerating.
What does “fair value” mean?
Fair value is Synthos’s estimate of what one share is worth today, based on our model of the company’s future cash generation and the risks to it. It is not a price target or a prediction of where the stock trades next quarter — it’s the price where we think risk and reward are balanced. Above it, you’re paying for outcomes better than our base case; below it, the market is offering a margin of safety.
The model’s inputs and weightings are proprietary — they’re the product. What we publish is the output, plus an independent, public-math cross-check further down the page (“Check our number”) so you can judge it for yourself.
What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Exponential Potential
Scores pricing + platform ARR (49% growth) are real legs, but a $29B cap on a mature, regulated core caps the multibagger; growth is steady, not accelerating.
What could take this further than the base case — and where the market may be underpricing it. Full forward-growth and acceleration math in Deeper analysis, §4 below.
Deeper analysis
Technicals, fundamentals, valuation, and the full expert-claim evidence panel — the detail behind the numbers above.
Reference table
| Street consensus | $1,607 (high $1,950 / low $1,270; 16 Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell) — context, not our anchor |
| Valuation | 40× TTM EPS · 30× FY26E · 23× FY27E · 15× FY30E · EV/S 14.6× · EV/EBITDA 28× |
| Technicals | Downtrend — $1,271, −32% off 52-wk high, below the 200-DMA, RSI 64, −31% 12-mo (SPY +21%) |
| Conviction | Moderate — only 1 net-bullish voice (11 claims); the "monopoly-like franchise" thesis is real but thinly covered |
| Position sizing | Tactical / satellite, ~2–3%; scale in — the chart is broken and the regulatory catalyst is binary |
What the experts actually said 12 traceable claims on FICO · showing the highest-conviction voices
“FICO scores is a monopoly-like franchise combining scale economics, network effects and very high switching costs — one of the best business models on the planet.”
“FICO was a market-neglect opportunity 6 years ago — dominant, improving pricing power in plain sight; up 100%+ two years running.”
“B2B scores are cyclical — revenue fell ~a third in 2007-09 — but expanding use cases plus pricing keep long-term scores revenue growing through cycles.”
Every claim reconciles to a real claim_id in the Synthos knowledge base — this is the evidence the verdict is built on, not vibes. Management (the company itself) is shown but half-weighted; one cautionary voice is included on purpose.
Price & moving averages 12 months · 50 & 200-day averages · 52-week range
Solid line = price · dashed line = 50-day average · dotted line = 200-day average · the two thin horizontal lines mark the 52-week high and low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.
Data summary: last close $1,153.57, 1% below the 50-day average ($1,171), 13% below the 200-day average ($1,322) — a downtrend. 39% below the 52-week high of $1,880, 25% above the 52-week low of $922.
Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations
The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.
Data summary: price $1,153.57 is currently inside the band (band $998–$1,198).
RSI (14) momentum gauge · 0–100
Above 70 (overbought zone, shaded) = overbought, below 30 (oversold zone, shaded) = oversold. Currently 52.
MACD 12 / 26 / 9 · trend & momentum
The MACD line crossing above the signal line (bars flip to the up color) = momentum turning up; crossing below (bars flip to the down color) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.
Data summary: MACD is currently above its signal line by 10.99, positive momentum.
Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLK (sector)), set to 100 a year ago
Solid = FICO · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLK (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.
Forward revenue & earnings actual → estimate · "FY" = fiscal year, "E" = estimate
Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.
Key stats an RIA wants
1. What it is
Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO), founded 1956 and headquartered in Bozeman, Montana, is an analytics-software company built around two very different engines. Fiscal year ends September 30.
- Scores — the crown jewel. FICO owns the FICO Score, used by ~90% of top U.S. lenders and the de-facto standard for U.S. consumer credit risk. This is a B2B toll booth (lenders pay per score pulled, via the three credit bureaus) plus a smaller B2C consumer business (myFICO.com). It is nearly all margin.
- Software (a.k.a. Applications / the FICO Platform) — decision-management software for fraud detection, financial-crime compliance, marketing, originations and collections. Real business, but a single-digit grower with a fast-growing platform sub-segment inside it.
Revenue mix (FY2025, from filings):
- By segment: Scores $1,168.6M (59%) · Software/Applications $822.3M (41%). Scores is both the larger and the far higher-margin, faster-growing half.
- By geography: Americas $1,732M (87%) · EMEA $160M (8%) · Asia-Pacific $99M (5%). This is an overwhelmingly U.S. story — which is a pricing-power strength and the reason U.S. mortgage/credit-scoring policy is the key risk (§11).
The engine right now is mortgage-score pricing: in Q2'26, Scores revenue rose 60% year-over-year, with B2B up 72%, driven mostly by a higher mortgage-origination score unit price plus volume. That single lever is the bull case and the bear case at once.
2. The expert thesis — thin but high-conviction (traceable)
Honest breadth disclosure: this is a thinly covered name in the Synthos KB — 11 total claims, effectively 1 net-bullish voice. The verdict here is fundamentals- and quant-driven, with the expert layer used as corroboration, not as the anchor. What coverage exists is high-conviction and squarely on the moat:
- The franchise is a monopoly-grade business model. Business Breakdowns (
business_breakdowns-33NBOf-cHNY:b09723eacb, bullish, conviction 90, skill 1.0): FICO Scores is "a monopoly-like franchise combining scale economics, network effects and very high switching costs — one of the best business models on the planet." This is the load-bearing bull claim, and the financials (84% gross margin, ~53% ROIC) corroborate it. - But the B2B scores line is cyclical. The same source, in a balancing note (
business_breakdowns-33NBOf-cHNY:27aa5eec56, neutral, conviction 65): B2B scores are cyclical — "revenue fell ~a third in 2007-09" — though expanding use cases plus pricing keep long-term scores revenue growing through cycles. This is the honest counterweight: the recent 72% B2B growth is a pricing-and-mortgage-volume tailwind that can reverse.
Honest composite note. One high-skill voice calling this one of the best business models on earth is meaningful, but it is one voice, and the claims date to 2023 — before the mortgage-pricing controversy and the ~31% stock decline. Do not read the thin KB as broad Street enthusiasm; read it as "the moat is real; the price and the politics are the live questions the KB does not resolve."
3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases
The one-glance judgment — three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics (not probabilities we can't honestly calibrate):
| Score | 0–10 | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Downside Risk (lower = safer) | 6 · Moderate-High | Monopoly economics and modest absolute leverage, but 40× TTM, net-debt/EBITDA ~3.0×, beta 1.28, a −47% max drawdown, and a genuinely unresolved mortgage-pricing / regulation overhang. The de-rate lowers valuation risk but the political risk is live. |
| Growth Quality | 8 · Very High | ~20% forward EPS CAGR, 84% gross margin, ROIC ~53%, monopoly Scores franchise with pricing power and switching costs. Docked from 9 because ~40% of revenue (Software) grows only ~7%. |
| Exponential Potential | 5 · Moderate | Scores pricing + platform ARR (+49% YoY) are real legs, but the core is mature and regulated and the cap is $29B on a well-covered franchise. Steady compounder, not an accelerant. |
The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions shown; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value, anchored on FY27E EPS). We deliberately do not attach probabilities: the base case is by definition the expected path, so a weighted blend would just restate it with false precision. The cases bound the range; the scores above summarize them.
| Case | Key assumptions | Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Mortgage-price increases stick with no regulatory cap; platform ARR keeps compounding ~40%+; VantageScore fails to take share. FY27E EPS beats to ~$58 (vs $54.2 cons); the monopoly re-rates back toward ~34×. | ~$1,970 (+55%) |
| Base (our anchor) | Estimates roughly hit — FY27E EPS ~$54; a durable monopoly with some regulatory discount earns a ~28× multiple. | ~$1,510 (+19%) |
| Bear | FHFA/political pressure caps mortgage-score pricing and/or VantageScore takes share; B2B cyclicality bites. FY27E EPS stalls to ~$46; multiple de-rates to ~18× as the "monopoly premium" narrows. | ~$830 (−35%) |
Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$1,510 (+19%), with the full $830–$1,970 span as the honest range. This anchor sits below the Street's $1,607 consensus — we apply a larger regulatory discount than the sell side, and note the Street's own low target ($1,270) equals today's price. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures.
4. Exponential Potential
Synthos separates compounders (durable high returns on capital) from exponentials (accelerating multi-baggers-from-here). FICO is an elite compounder with a pricing kicker, not a true exponential:
- Forward growth: revenue CAGR FY25→FY30E ~13.8% ($1.99B → $3.80B); EPS CAGR ~21% (FY25 diluted $26.54 → FY30E ~$86). Margin expansion and buybacks (share count falling ~2%/yr) lever revenue into faster EPS.
- Acceleration (the 2nd derivative) is a pricing spike, not a structural ramp: the FY26 surge (revenue +39% in Q2'26, Scores +60%) is powered by mortgage-score price increases off a fixed installed base. Consensus already models deceleration back toward ~14% revenue growth by FY27E–FY30E. This is a one-time repricing event partly annualizing, not a compounding new market.
- Room to run: at $29.5B the cap is modest for a monopoly, but the addressable core (U.S. credit scoring) is mature and near-saturated on volume — future upside is price × modest volume × platform-software expansion, not a vast untapped TAM. Platform ARR growing +49% is the genuine new leg worth watching.
- Reinvestment runway: capital-light (capex <1% of revenue); the company returns essentially all FCF via buybacks rather than reinvesting into new markets — a hallmark of a mature cash machine, not an exponential.
Exponential Potential: Moderate (5/10). Own FICO for durable ~20% EPS compounding plus a live pricing lever, not for a fast multibagger. A small, accelerating name with these margins would score 8–9; FICO's maturity, regulation, and $29B cap hold it at 5.
5. Financials (real numbers — FMP annual/quarterly + SEC Q2'26)
- Revenue: FY25 (Sep) $1.99B, +15.9% (FY24 $1.72B, +13.5% on FY23 $1.51B). Then a step-change: Q2'26 revenue $691.7M, +39% YoY, on the mortgage-pricing surge. TTM revenue ~$2.26B.
- Segment split of the surge: Q2'26 Scores $475.0M (+60%; B2B +72%, B2C +5%) vs Software $216.7M (+7%). The growth is almost entirely Scores/pricing.
- Margins (elite): gross 84.2% TTM, EBITDA ~51.5% TTM, operating ~50% TTM, net ~33.7% TTM. Q2'26 operating income $402M on $692M revenue (58% operating margin in the quarter).
- Earnings: FY25 diluted EPS $26.54 (net income $652M). Q2'26 diluted EPS $11.14 GAAP / $12.50 non-GAAP, up from $6.59/$7.81. TTM diluted EPS ~$31.6.
- Returns on capital (the moat, quantified): ROIC ~53%, return on tangible assets ~60%, return on capital employed ~69%. (ROE is negative only because buybacks have driven book equity negative — a financial-engineering artifact, not distress.)
- Cash flow: FY25 operating CF $779M, capex just −$8.9M, FCF $770M (FCF margin ~39%). Q2'26 FCF $214M vs $65M prior year. A capital-light cash machine.
- Balance sheet: total debt ~$4.04B (post-Q2'26), cash ~$219M, net-debt/EBITDA ~3.0×. Investment-grade and easily serviced (interest coverage ~7×), but not a "fortress" balance sheet — the buyback is debt-funded. Stockholders' equity is negative (−$2.1B) purely from $7.5B of cumulative treasury-stock buybacks, not losses.
6. Valuation — the de-rate did the work
FICO is not cheap on trailing numbers (40× TTM EPS, 14.6× sales, 28× EV/EBITDA), but the story is that a monopoly got cheaper: the stock fell ~31% over 12 months even as EPS surged, compressing the multiple. On live consensus the forward P/E is 30× (FY26E) → 23× (FY27E) → 15× (FY30E) — the multiple collapses fast even at a flat price if estimates hold. Cross-check: management's own raised FY26 guidance implies GAAP EPS ~$35.60 (35.7× forward) and non-GAAP ~$40.45 (31× forward). A reverse read: at ~$1,271 the market is pricing roughly the Street's mid-teens revenue / low-20s EPS CAGR with a regulatory haircut — i.e., the mortgage-pricing controversy is already partly in the price. Street targets (context): consensus $1,607, high $1,950, low $1,270 (= today). Our $1,510 base FV is below consensus because we discount the regulatory tail harder than the sell side. Not a value stock; a quality monopoly at a newly reasonable — not cheap — price.
7. Technicals (from the tech block)
- Trend: down / repairing. $1,271 sits above the 50-DMA ($1,145) but well below the 200-DMA ($1,413) — a death-cross posture (50 below 200). MACD +10.5 (mildly positive, off a low base). This is a broken chart trying to base, not an uptrend.
- Location: −32.4% off the 52-week high ($1,879) and +37.8% off the 52-week low ($922); max drawdown −46.7% from peak. This has been a painful, deep decline.
- Momentum: RSI(14) 64 — firm but not overbought (<70); consistent with the recent 3-month bounce.
- Relative strength (the tell — and it's negative): FICO −31.1% 12-mo vs SPY +20.6% and QQQ +30.3%, and −27.2% 6-mo vs SPY +8.4%. Only the 3-month is green (+19.7% vs SPY +13.7%), hinting at a possible bottoming.
- Read: technicals do not yet confirm the fundamental thesis — this is a fallen leader attempting to base after a −47% drawdown. The 3-month upturn is encouraging but unproven. This argues for scaling in, not lump-sum, and using the 200-DMA (~$1,413) as the "trend repaired" tripwire.
8. Moat & competitive position
FICO's moat is one of the widest in software: (1) a regulatory/standards lock-in — the FICO Score is written into the plumbing of U.S. mortgage underwriting (GSE requirements), lender risk models, and securitization; (2) network effects — lenders, bureaus, and secondary markets all speak "FICO," so switching is a system-wide coordination problem, not a vendor swap; (3) pricing power — a per-pull toll with negligible marginal cost, which is exactly why price hikes drop almost entirely to the bottom line. Business Breakdowns' "one of the best business models on the planet" (business_breakdowns-33NBOf-cHNY:b09723eacb) is not hyperbole given 84% gross margins and ~53% ROIC.
The competitive/regulatory frame — the crux: the same pricing power that drives the numbers is now a target. VantageScore (owned by the three bureaus) has been cleared for use in some GSE-backed mortgages, and FHFA/industry pushback on FICO's mortgage-score price increases is the live debate. The moat is durable in use; the open question is whether it is durable in price.
Peer set (FMP-supplied, market cap) — note it is a loose "application software" bucket, not true comps: Garmin $46B, Block (XYZ) $47B, Nokia $65B, Celestica $39B, Ubiquiti $32B, Cognizant $20B, Zoom $26B, Atlassian $22B, PTC $14B, Trade Desk $9B. None is a genuine credit-scoring comp; FICO's true peers are the bureaus (Equifax, Experian, TransUnion) and VantageScore, which FMP does not list here. Treat this table as sector context only.
9. Management, capital allocation & guidance
- Capital allocation: almost pure buyback — FY25 repurchased $1.41B of stock (funded partly by $856M of new debt), shrinking the share count ~2%/yr; no dividend. At ~53% ROIC and a capital-light model, returning cash is defensible, but the debt-funded buyback is why net-debt/EBITDA is ~3.0× and equity is negative — a leverage choice, not distress, but it removes balance-sheet cushion.
- Insider activity: routine. Recent Form 4s (CEO William Lansing, CFO Steven Weber, Software President Nikhil Behl, all June/May 2026) are option exercises and tax-withholding in-kind dispositions, not open-market discretionary selling — normal comp mechanics, no alarming cluster.
- Management's own guidance (half-weighted — their own book): In the SEC 8-K (Q2'26 earnings release, filed 2026-04-28), management raised full-year FY2026 guidance: revenue to $2.45B (from $2.35B), GAAP net income $825M / GAAP EPS $35.60 (from $795M / $33.47), and non-GAAP net income $946M / non-GAAP EPS $40.45 (from $907M / $38.17). CEO Will Lansing: "We continue to deliver strong revenue and earnings growth... we are raising our full year guidance." Also disclosed: Software ARR +10% YoY, platform ARR +49%, non-platform ARR −8%; dollar-based net retention 109% total (136% platform / 90% non-platform). Treat as management's self-interested framing (half-weight); the platform-ARR and mortgage-pricing lines are the ones to verify each quarter.
10. Catalysts & what to watch
- Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (Q3'26; Street EPS $11.69, revenue ~$676M). Watch: mortgage-score pricing commentary, Scores growth durability, and any FHFA/VantageScore updates.
- Regulatory / competitive (the binary): FHFA and Congressional pushback on mortgage-score pricing; VantageScore adoption in GSE-backed mortgages. This is the single biggest swing factor for the whole call.
- Platform ARR: sustaining ~40–50% platform ARR growth and 130%+ platform net-retention = the credible second growth leg.
- Mortgage-origination volume: B2B scores are cyclical (
business_breakdowns-33NBOf-cHNY:27aa5eec56) — a rate-driven origination slowdown would compound any pricing pressure. - Debt/leverage: further debt-funded buybacks pushing net-debt/EBITDA above ~3.5× would raise the risk score.
Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): an FHFA/regulatory cap on mortgage-score pricing; VantageScore winning material GSE share; two consecutive quarters of Scores deceleration ex-pricing; or net-debt/EBITDA climbing through ~3.5×.
11. Key risks
- Mortgage-pricing regulation (structural, and the crux): the price increases powering FY26 invite FHFA/political scrutiny. A cap would hit the highest-margin revenue directly. This is why the stock fell ~31% and why our bear case is severe.
- VantageScore competition: bureau-owned alternative cleared for some GSE mortgages — the first credible threat to the standards lock-in in years.
- Cyclicality: B2B scores fell ~a third in 2007–09 (
business_breakdowns-33NBOf-cHNY:27aa5eec56); a mortgage-origination downturn would sting on top of any pricing cap. - Valuation / de-rating: still 40× TTM; if growth reverts to the mid-teens without the pricing kicker, the multiple has room to compress further (bear case 18×).
- Leverage & negative equity: debt-funded buybacks leave net-debt/EBITDA ~3.0× and negative book equity — limited cushion if cash flows wobble.
- Concentration: 87% Americas, one dominant product line — little diversification if the U.S. scoring franchise is disrupted.
- Thin expert coverage: only 1 net-bullish KB voice, claims dated 2023 — less independent corroboration than a high-breadth name; conviction is Moderate by design.
12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring
Buy — Tactical. FICO is a genuine monopoly — 84% gross margins, ~53% ROIC, a standards-level moat, management raising guidance twice — that the market has repriced down ~31% on a real but unresolved regulatory question. The de-rate has taken a wonderful business from expensive to reasonable (23× FY27E), and our base case sees ~19% upside to ~$1,510. But the chart is broken (below the 200-DMA, −47% drawdown), the KB is thin (1 voice), and the mortgage-pricing/VantageScore overhang is genuinely binary — so this is a tactical position to scale into, not a core table-pound.
- Sizing: tactical / satellite, ~2–3% of the flagship, scaled in (starter now, adds on regulatory clarity or a reclaim of the 200-DMA) — not a single lump into a falling knife.
- Monitoring: re-underwrite on the §10 tripwires; formal re-score each earnings print, with the 2026-07-29 Q3 report the near-term test.
- Single biggest risk: FHFA/political action capping mortgage-score pricing (and/or VantageScore taking GSE share) — the one thing that turns the base case into the bear case. This verdict is logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-03 at $1,270.83.
Provenance & disclosures
- Traceability: 11 KB claims, breadth 1 net-bullish voice, top skill 1.0 (Business Breakdowns), last claim 2023-05-29 — both cited claims reconcile to real
claim_ids. Fabricated conviction is structurally impossible (claim-ID reconciliation). Thin coverage is disclosed, not hidden; the verdict is fundamentals- and quant-led. - Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-03-31 (Q2'26, FY ends Sep) · estimates & prices 2026-07-02/03 · expert claims through 2023-05-29 · management guidance from the SEC 8-K filed 2026-04-28. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP) or management guidance, labeled as estimates.
- Management caveat: FY2026 guidance is management's own self-interested framing, half-weighted by design.
- Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
- Version: 2026-07-03. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").