The Cooper Companies COO

Healthcare · Medical - Instruments & Supplies · Synthos Deep Dive · 2026-07-03

$71.17

Buy — Tactical

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The Overview

Cooper makes two everyday medical things: contact lenses (CooperVision, two-thirds of sales) and women's-health and fertility products (CooperSurgical, one-third). These are steady, boring, repeat-purchase businesses — people keep buying contacts every month.

The good news: the stock isn't expensive for what it is. After a weak year the price fell, and you're now paying about 15 times next year's adjusted profit for a company that keeps two-thirds of every sales dollar as gross profit. Our verdict is Buy — Tactical: worth owning for a rebound, but keep the position small, because the growth is slow and no expert we track has weighed in on it.

Here's what our three scores mean in everyday terms:

Downside Risk 5/10 (middle). The stock doesn't swing wildly and the price is fair, but the company carries a fair bit of debt and just took a big legal charge over a product recall.
Growth Quality 5/10 (average). A solid, profitable business — but it's only growing about 5% a year, which is ordinary.
Exponential Potential 3/10 (low). This is a mature, two-company market. Expect steady, slow growth, not a rocket.

The one big worry: growth stays stuck in the low single digits while the lawsuit over CooperSurgical's 2023 fertility-media recall — and a "strategic review" of that unit — hangs over the stock.

Putting a number on it: our fair-value estimate is $95 against a current price of $71.17 — real upside if our numbers are right.

Target entry zone $64 – $71 accumulate in this band; ideal adds on further weakness toward $64 (~10% below the last price; both moving averages sit overhead — the 200-day at $73), keeping roughly a 25% margin below our $95 base-case fair value

Our summary metrics

Downside Risk (lower = safer)5/10Moderate

Reasonable ~16× forward non-GAAP EPS & 0.87 beta, but 2.7× net-debt/EBITDA, a −35% peak drawdown and a fresh $272M litigation charge.

Growth Quality5/10Moderate

Only ~5% organic revenue & ~9% non-GAAP EPS CAGR; 68% gross margin but ROIC ~2.5% weighed down by acquisition goodwill.

Exponential Potential3/10Low

Mature contact-lens/women's-health duopoly, low-single-digit and decelerating top line — a steady compounder, not an exponential.

Fair value$95 $70–$118

What does “fair value” mean?

Fair value is Synthos’s estimate of what one share is worth today, based on our model of the company’s future cash generation and the risks to it. It is not a price target or a prediction of where the stock trades next quarter — it’s the price where we think risk and reward are balanced. Above it, you’re paying for outcomes better than our base case; below it, the market is offering a margin of safety.

The model’s inputs and weightings are proprietary — they’re the product. What we publish is the output, plus an independent, public-math cross-check further down the page (“Check our number”) so you can judge it for yourself.

What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)

Buy — CoreOwn it as a foundation — start or add now, size it for years, let dips be gifts.

Buy — TacticalGood price + confirmed trend + a defined exit — buy the setup, not a marriage.

WatchWe want the business, just not at this price/setup — act only when the listed trigger hits.

HoldFine to keep if you own it — no reason to buy more; new money does better elsewhere.

AvoidDon't own it — the problem is the business or the expectations, so a cheaper price won't fix it.

Exponential Potential

Exponential Potential3/10Low

Mature contact-lens/women's-health duopoly, low-single-digit and decelerating top line — a steady compounder, not an exponential.

What could take this further than the base case — and where the market may be underpricing it. Full forward-growth and acceleration math in Deeper analysis, §4 below.

Deeper analysis

Technicals, fundamentals, valuation, and the full expert-claim evidence panel — the detail behind the numbers above.

Check our number Market-implied growth ≈ 1%/yr This isn’t how we calculate fair value — it’s public math you can verify yourself. To justify today’s $71, earnings would have to compound roughly 1% a year for 10 years (9% discount rate). Analysts forecast ~9%/yr, so the market is pricing in LESS than what the Street expects.

Reference table

Street consensus	$80.33 (high $98 / low $61; median $85.5; 16 Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell) — context, not our anchor
Valuation	39× trailing GAAP EPS · ~16× FY26E · ~15× FY27E · ~13× FY29E non-GAAP EPS · EV/S 4.0× · EV/EBITDA 19×
Technicals	Mixed — $74.2, −12% off 52-wk high, above 50-DMA & just above 200-DMA, RSI 75 (overbought), +1.9% 12-mo (SPY +20.6%)
Conviction	Low (breadth 0) — zero net-bullish voices, zero traceable claims; call rests on fundamentals + quant
Position sizing	Satellite-defensive, ~1.5–3% — a fair-priced steady grower, not a high-conviction anchor

What the experts actually said

No independent expert claims in the Synthos knowledge base yet for COO — this dive is fundamentals- and technicals-driven, not panel-driven.

Price & moving averages 12 months · 50 & 200-day averages · 52-week range

Solid line = price · dashed line = 50-day average · dotted line = 200-day average · the two thin horizontal lines mark the 52-week high and low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.

Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations

The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.

RSI (14) momentum gauge · 0–100

Above 70 (overbought zone, shaded) = overbought, below 30 (oversold zone, shaded) = oversold. Currently 39.

MACD 12 / 26 / 9 · trend & momentum

The MACD line crossing above the signal line (bars flip to the up color) = momentum turning up; crossing below (bars flip to the down color) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.

Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLV (sector)), set to 100 a year ago

Solid = COO · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLV (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.

Forward revenue & earnings actual → estimate · "FY" = fiscal year, "E" = estimate

Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.

Key stats an RIA wants

Price$71.17

Market cap$14B

P/E trailing59×

P/E FY26E / FY27E15× / 14×

EV / Sales3.8×

EV / EBITDA18.7×

Gross margin64.4%

Net margin5.6%

Dividend yield0.00%

Beta0.823

52-wk range$59 – $84

RSI(14)24

50 / 200-DMA$72 / $73

12-mo return+-4% (SPY +19%)

Street target$77 ($61–$86)

Analyst grades16 Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell

FMP ratingB

Next earnings2026-09-02 (Q3 FY26 earnings; Street EPS est $1.13)

1. What it is

The Cooper Companies (Nasdaq: COO) is a ~$14.5B global medical-device firm run through two units. Fiscal year ends October 31.

CooperVision (CVI) — soft contact lenses: spheres, plus higher-margin toric (astigmatism) and multifocal (presbyopia) lenses, and a growing myopia-management franchise (MiSight). This is the crown jewel: a scale player in a global contact-lens oligopoly (with J&J Vision, Alcon, Bausch + Lomb).
CooperSurgical (CSI) — women's and family health: fertility consumables/equipment and genetic testing, plus office/surgical products including the PARAGARD IUD and uterine manipulators.

Revenue mix (FY2025, from filings):

By segment: CooperVision $2.744B (67%) · CooperSurgical $1.349B (33%). Total $4.092B.
By geography: United States $2.733B (67%) · Europe $2.378B (note: FMP's EMEA figure appears to overlap; per the Q2 release CVI Americas + EMEA + APAC split the total) · Rest of world $0.785B. The base is roughly split US / international, with meaningful FX exposure (the Q2 release flagged a −4% currency drag on CVI).
Q2 FY26 detail (from the earnings release): CVI $723.5M (+4% organic), led by toric & multifocal +7%; CSI $358.0M (+6% organic), with fertility +10%.

2. The expert thesis — why the panel is bullish (traceable)

There is no expert coverage of COO in the Synthos knowledge base: total_claims = 0, net-bullish voices = 0. No independent analyst voice we track — bullish or bearish — has said anything reconcilable about this name.

That matters for honesty: this verdict carries no conviction premium. It is built entirely from the reported financials, live analyst consensus estimates (FMP), management's own guidance (half-weighted, §9), and Synthos's quant scoring. Where a name like Eli Lilly earns a "High" conviction rating from 13 reconciled expert voices, Cooper earns "Low (breadth 0)" by construction. Treat the call accordingly: it is a fundamentals-and-valuation judgment, not a crowd-of-experts signal.

3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases

Three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics (not probabilities we can't honestly calibrate):

Score	0–10	The read
Downside Risk (lower = safer)	5 · Moderate	Forward multiple is reasonable (~16× FY26E non-GAAP) and beta is 0.87, but net-debt/EBITDA is 2.7×, the stock has a −35% max drawdown from its peak, and a fresh $271.6M litigation charge (fertility recall) pushed GAAP Q2 to a loss.
Growth Quality	5 · Average	68% gross margin and recurring demand are attractive, but organic revenue grows only ~5%, non-GAAP EPS CAGR ~9%, and ROIC ~2.5% / ROE ~2.8% are weighed down by ~$5.4B of acquisition goodwill & intangibles.
Exponential Potential	3 · Low	Mature contact-lens/women's-health duopoly; low-single-digit and decelerating top line. A steady compounder, not an exponential — no acceleration, limited room-to-run at scale.

The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions shown; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value). We deliberately do not attach probabilities. All EPS figures below are non-GAAP (the basis for management's guidance and Street estimates).

Case	Key assumptions	Fair value
Bull	Fertility/myopia reaccelerate, litigation & strategic-review overhang clears, margins expand on synergies. FY28E EPS ~$5.48 earns a re-rating back to ~21–22×.	~$118 (+59%)
Base (our anchor)	Estimates roughly hit — FY27E non-GAAP EPS ~$5.01; a defensive mid-single-digit grower earns a ~19× multiple.	~$95 (+28%)
Bear	Growth stalls near GDP, FX/tariff drag persists, litigation reopens or strategic review disappoints. FY27E EPS misses to ~$4.70; multiple de-rates to ~15×.	~$70 (−6%)

Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$95 (+28%), with the full $70–$118 span as the honest range. This anchor sits above the Street's $80.33 consensus (we think the forward multiple is too depressed for a 68%-gross-margin duopolist) but below the Street high of $98. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures. Given the low conviction (zero expert breadth), size it as a satellite, not an anchor.

4. Exponential Potential

Synthos separates compounders (durable but slow) from exponentials (accelerating multi-baggers). COO is firmly a slow compounder:

Forward growth: revenue CAGR FY25→FY29E ~5.1% ($4.09B → $4.99B); non-GAAP EPS CAGR FY26→FY29E ~8.7% ($4.63 → $5.95).
Acceleration (2nd derivative) is flat-to-negative: organic revenue growth is running ~4–5% (Q2 FY26 +5% organic) with no inflection in sight; management's own FY26 guide is 3.5–4.5% organic. This is the opposite of the accelerating small-cap profile that scores high here.
Room to run: the global contact-lens market is large but mature and effectively a four-player oligopoly; Cooper is already a scaled incumbent. At $14.5B there is no realistic multibagger runway from category expansion alone — the upside is a valuation re-rate plus steady compounding, not TAM capture.
Optionality: the real growth wedges are myopia management (MiSight — structurally growing as childhood myopia rises) and fertility (+10% organic in Q2). These are the two lines to watch, but neither is large enough yet to move a $4B revenue base into double-digit growth.

Exponential Potential: Low (3/10). Own COO for defensive, mid-single-digit compounding and a possible mean-reversion in the multiple — not for exponential upside.

5. Financials (real numbers — FMP annual/quarterly + the Q2 FY26 release)

Revenue: FY25 $4.092B, +5.1% (FY24 $3.895B, +8.4% on FY23 $3.593B). Steady mid-single-digit grower. Q2 FY26 revenue $1.082B, +8% reported / +5% organic.
Margins: gross 64% TTM (68% on a non-GAAP basis); the difference is acquisition-intangible amortization running through COGS. Non-GAAP operating margin was 27% in Q2 FY26, +260 bps YoY on synergies.
The GAAP loss quarter: Q2 FY26 GAAP EPS was −$0.40 — but that is entirely a $271.6M pre-tax litigation charge to resolve the 2023 CooperSurgical fertility-media recall claims. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.21, +26% YoY — the tenth straight quarter of beating consensus. Judge the operating business on the non-GAAP line; judge the balance-sheet/legal risk on the GAAP charge.
Earnings: FY25 GAAP net income $374.9M, EPS $1.88 (note the FY21 EPS of $59.73 is a one-off tax-benefit artifact — ignore it). Non-GAAP FY26 guide is $4.58–$4.66.
Cash flow: FY25 operating CF $796M, capex −$362M, FCF ~$434M. Q2 FY26 FCF $96.4M. Management reaffirmed a >$2.2B cumulative FCF objective for FY26–FY28.
Balance sheet: total debt $2.78B, net debt $2.67B, net-debt/EBITDA ~2.7× — investment-grade but more levered than a peer like a debt-free device name. No dividend. ~$861M buyback authorization remains (only $13M repurchased in Q2 — buybacks are minimal).

6. Valuation — priced in or room?

On trailing GAAP numbers COO looks expensive (39× EPS, 19× EV/EBITDA) — but that's distorted by intangible amortization and the litigation charge. The honest lens is forward non-GAAP: at $74.20 the stock trades at ~16× FY26E · ~15× FY27E · ~13× FY29E non-GAAP EPS. For a 68%-gross-margin, low-beta, recurring-revenue duopolist, that is not demanding — it is roughly a market multiple for a below-market grower, which is the crux of the tactical case: the multiple has room to re-rate if growth holds.

EV/EBITDA 19× TTM and EV/S 4.0× are middle-of-the-road for medtech. The bull needs the multiple to normalize back toward COO's historical low-20s forward P/E; the bear says a ~5% grower with 2.7× leverage and a legal overhang deserves only ~15×. Street targets (context): consensus $80.33, median $85.5, high $98, low $61. Our $95 base FV is above consensus because we weight the FY27 earnings power and a modest re-rate; we are not calling it cheap on trailing GAAP.

7. Technicals (from the tech block)

Trend: mixed-to-improving. $74.20 sits above the 50-DMA ($64.27) and just above the 200-DMA ($72.78) — a recovery off the lows, with the 50 now below the 200 (not yet a golden cross). MACD +2.27 (positive).
Location: −12% off the 52-week high ($84.32), +26% off the 52-week low ($58.98). The max drawdown from peak was −35% — this has been a volatile, disappointing year for the stock.
Momentum: RSI(14) 75 — overbought (>70). After a sharp bounce, the near-term entry is stretched; a pullback toward the 200-DMA (~$73) or 50-DMA (~$64) would be a lower-risk add.
Relative strength (the tell): COO +1.9% 12-mo vs SPY +20.6% and QQQ +30.3% — a persistent laggard over the past year. −10% over 6 months while SPY rose. The technicals reflect a name recovering off a bad stretch, not a leadership uptrend.
Read: improving but not confirmed, and overbought short-term. The chart argues for patience on entry rather than chasing.

8. Moat & competitive position

Cooper's moat is scale and consumable recurrence in an oligopoly: contact lenses are a repeat, prescription-anchored purchase, and only four players (J&J Vision, Alcon, Bausch + Lomb, CooperVision) have the manufacturing scale to compete globally. Toric/multifocal and myopia-management (MiSight) are structurally advantaged, higher-value niches. CooperSurgical adds a defensible fertility-consumables and IUD (PARAGARD) franchise. The weaknesses: mediocre returns on capital (ROIC ~2.5%, dragged by goodwill from a deal-heavy history), FX/tariff sensitivity, and the fertility-recall litigation that just cost $272M.

Peer set (FMP-supplied; note these are loosely comparable, not pure contact-lens peers): Hologic $17.0B (women's health — the closest comp), Smith & Nephew $12.8B, Fresenius Medical Care $12.6B, ICON $13.3B, Solventum $13.6B, Neurocrine $17.5B, Universal Health $9.9B, Tempus AI $10.5B, Doximity $4.1B, Summit Therapeutics $12.0B. The truest strategic comps (Alcon, Bausch + Lomb, J&J Vision) are not in this list; against them Cooper is the #2–3 lens player with the strongest myopia-management position.

9. Management, capital allocation & guidance

Capital allocation: organic capex-led (~$362M/yr) plus bolt-on M&A; buybacks are minimal (only $13M in Q2 vs an $861M authorization); no dividend. Net-debt/EBITDA 2.7× is the constraint on more aggressive returns.
Insider activity: the sampled window shows only routine director RSU awards and exempt conversions (Rosebrough, Weiss, Rivas — April 2026), no discretionary open-market buying or alarming selling.
Management's own guidance (half-weighted — their own book): the Q2 FY26 earnings release (filed 2026-06-04) is a real earnings release and gives dated forward guidance. Management updated FY2026 guidance to: total revenue $4.285–$4.321B (organic growth 3.5%–4.5%), CVI $2.883–$2.908B, CSI $1.402–$1.414B, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.58–$4.66. They reaffirmed a cumulative free-cash-flow objective exceeding $2.2B for FY26–FY28. CEO Al White framed the quarter as "record revenue and non-GAAP EPS… tenth consecutive quarter of exceeding consensus," and noted agreements to resolve substantially all fertility-recall claims, "allowing us to move forward with our strategic review" (a signal a CSI transaction/restructuring is under consideration). Treat this as management's self-interested framing, half-weighted.

10. Catalysts & what to watch

Next earnings: 2026-09-02 (Q3 FY26; Street EPS $1.13, revenue ~$1.10B). Watch organic growth vs the 3.5–4.5% guide.
Strategic review of CooperSurgical: management explicitly flagged it — a divestiture, spin, or restructuring of CSI would be the single biggest re-rating catalyst (positive or negative).
Fertility-recall litigation: now largely provisioned ($324M accrued, $52.5M insurance offset), but any reopening is a risk.
Myopia management (MiSight) and fertility momentum: the two real growth wedges — sustained double-digit fertility growth would support the bull case.
FX / tariffs: the Q2 release flagged both; a stronger dollar or new tariffs pressure margins.

Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): organic growth falling below ~3%; non-GAAP margin reversing the synergy gains; leverage rising above ~3× net-debt/EBITDA; or the strategic review resolving value-destructively.

11. Key risks

Slow growth (structural): a mature ~5%-organic category; the multiple only re-rates if growth holds, and there's little to reaccelerate it.
Litigation / recall overhang: the $272M CooperSurgical charge is a reminder of tail legal risk in fertility media; reputational and regulatory follow-on is possible.
Leverage: 2.7× net-debt/EBITDA limits flexibility and buybacks; rising rates raise interest cost.
Returns on capital: ROIC ~2.5% / ROE ~2.8% — a deal-heavy history has diluted returns; goodwill impairment risk if any acquired line underperforms.
No expert coverage: zero Synthos KB breadth means no independent conviction cross-check — the entire call rests on our own quant/fundamentals read.
FX & tariffs: roughly half the revenue is ex-US; currency and tariff swings move margins quarter to quarter.

12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring

Buy — Tactical. Cooper is a defensible, low-beta duopolist whose stock has de-rated to a reasonable ~15–16× forward non-GAAP earnings after a bad year, offering ~28% base-case upside on modest multiple normalization plus mid-single-digit compounding. But this is a low-conviction, fundamentals-only call: growth is slow, returns on capital are mediocre, leverage is real, a fresh litigation charge just hit, and no Synthos expert voice covers the name. That combination argues for a tactical, modestly-sized position, not a core holding.

Sizing: satellite-defensive, ~1.5–3%. Because RSI is overbought (75) and the chart is only recovering, prefer to scale in on a pullback toward the 200-DMA (~$73) or 50-DMA (~$64) rather than chase.
Monitoring: re-underwrite on the §10 tripwires; formal re-score each earnings print and on any CooperSurgical strategic-review news. Logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-03 at $74.20.
Single biggest risk: growth stays low-single-digit while the CooperSurgical litigation / strategic review overhangs the stock.

Provenance & disclosures

Traceability: 0 KB claims, breadth 0 — no expert coverage in the Synthos KB. This is disclosed plainly; the verdict is fundamentals- and quant-driven, and no conviction premium is applied. Fabricated conviction is structurally impossible (claim-ID reconciliation) — and here there are no claims to cite.
Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-04-30 (Q2 FY26) · estimates & prices 2026-07-02/03 · management guidance from the SEC 8-K earnings release filed 2026-06-04. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP) or management guidance, labeled as estimates; FY26+ EPS figures are non-GAAP.
Management caveat: COO management guidance is management's own book, half-weighted by design.
Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
Version: 2026-07-03. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").