Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY
Healthcare · Biotechnology · Synthos Deep Dive · 2026-07-03
The Overview
Alnylam makes a new kind of medicine. Instead of a normal pill that blocks a protein after your body makes it, its drugs (called RNAi) quietly switch off the genetic instruction so the harmful protein is never made in the first place. Its big winner treats a disease called ATTR amyloidosis, where a faulty protein builds up and damages the heart and nerves.
For years Alnylam spent far more than it earned — normal for a company inventing a whole new drug technology. That just changed: in 2025 sales jumped 65% and the company turned its first-ever annual profit. The balance sheet is strong (more cash than debt), and the stock barely moves with the market.
The catch: the stock is expensive and has actually fallen about 36% from its high, badly lagging the market over the past year. You are paying a rich price for fast growth, and no outside expert in our research library covers this name — so our conviction is moderate. Our verdict is Buy as a smaller "satellite" position — a growth kicker you size modestly, not a cornerstone.
Here's what our three scores mean in everyday terms:
- Downside Risk 5/10 (middle). Financially sturdy and calm-trading — but priced high, and most of the story rides on one drug franchise.
- Growth Quality 8/10 (high). Fast-growing, newly profitable, with fat margins and a genuinely hard-to-copy technology.
- Exponential Potential 7/10 (high). Growth is speeding up, and at ~$42B the company is still small enough to grow a lot from here.
The one big worry: almost all the growth leans on the ATTR-amyloidosis franchise. If that ramp slows — competition, pricing, or a trial setback — the rich valuation has a long way to fall.
Putting a number on it: our fair-value estimate is $330 against a current price of $237.10 — real upside if our numbers are right.
Our summary metrics
Net cash & beta 0.27 anchor it — but 72× trailing / 42× forward and a −36% drawdown, single-franchise concentration.
~26% forward revenue CAGR, first profitable year FY25, 82% gross margin, ROIC ~20%, durable RNAi platform.
Growth is accelerating (rev +65% FY25, Q1'26 +96%) and a $42B cap has real room against an expanding RNAi TAM.
What does “fair value” mean?
Fair value is Synthos’s estimate of what one share is worth today, based on our model of the company’s future cash generation and the risks to it. It is not a price target or a prediction of where the stock trades next quarter — it’s the price where we think risk and reward are balanced. Above it, you’re paying for outcomes better than our base case; below it, the market is offering a margin of safety.
The model’s inputs and weightings are proprietary — they’re the product. What we publish is the output, We don’t publish a reverse-DCF cross-check for pre-profit companies — negative or missing earnings break that math — so take this number on our modeling alone.
What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Exponential Potential
Growth is accelerating (rev +65% FY25, Q1'26 +96%) and a $42B cap has real room against an expanding RNAi TAM.
What could take this further than the base case — and where the market may be underpricing it. Full forward-growth and acceleration math in Deeper analysis, §4 below.
Clinical pipeline
Clinical-trial data for ALNY hasn’t been pulled yet — check back soon.
Deeper analysis
Technicals, fundamentals, valuation, and the full expert-claim evidence panel — the detail behind the numbers above.
Reference table
| Street consensus | $451 (high $530 / low $370; 39 Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell) — context, not our anchor |
| Valuation | 72× trailing EPS · 42× FY26E · 30× FY27E · 24× FY28E · 16× FY30E · EV/S 9.6× · EV/EBITDA 45× |
| Technicals | Mixed — $313, −36% off 52-wk high, above 50-DMA but below 200-DMA, RSI 69, −2.9% 12-mo (SPY +21%, QQQ +30%) |
| Conviction | Moderate — 0 expert voices in the Synthos KB; call rests on fundamentals + quant |
| Position sizing | Satellite, ~1–3% — a growth kicker, not a core holding |
What the experts actually said 3 traceable claims on ALNY · showing the highest-conviction voices
“Alnylam's monster TTR launch made it a $50-60B company but with no clear-cut next pipeline act and a guide this week that disappointed — stuck in a 'what's next' limbo like Vertex once was.”
Every claim reconciles to a real claim_id in the Synthos knowledge base — this is the evidence the verdict is built on, not vibes. Management (the company itself) is shown but half-weighted; one cautionary voice is included on purpose.
Price & moving averages 12 months · 50 & 200-day averages · 52-week range
Solid line = price · dashed line = 50-day average · dotted line = 200-day average · the two thin horizontal lines mark the 52-week high and low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.
Data summary: last close $237.10, 9% below the 50-day average ($262), 27% below the 200-day average ($326) — a downtrend. 52% below the 52-week high of $491, 15% above the 52-week low of $205.
Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations
The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.
Data summary: price $237.10 is currently inside the band (band $212–$245).
RSI (14) momentum gauge · 0–100
Above 70 (overbought zone, shaded) = overbought, below 30 (oversold zone, shaded) = oversold. Currently 47.
MACD 12 / 26 / 9 · trend & momentum
The MACD line crossing above the signal line (bars flip to the up color) = momentum turning up; crossing below (bars flip to the down color) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.
Data summary: MACD is currently above its signal line by 3.55, positive momentum.
Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLV (sector)), set to 100 a year ago
Solid = ALNY · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLV (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.
Forward revenue & earnings actual → estimate · "FY" = fiscal year, "E" = estimate
Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.
Key stats an RIA wants
1. What it is
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ALNY), founded 2002, Cambridge MA, is the pure-play pioneer of RNA-interference (RNAi) therapeutics — a class of drugs (small interfering RNAs, "siRNAs") that silence a target gene so the disease-causing protein is never produced. It is the category leader, having brought the first-ever approved RNAi medicines to market. Fiscal year ends December 31.
The commercial engine today is the transthyretin-amyloidosis (ATTR) franchise — patisiran (ONPATTRO) and, critically, the newer vutrisiran (AMVUTTRA), whose expansion into ATTR cardiomyopathy is the single biggest driver of the recent revenue explosion. Around it sit rare-disease products GIVLAARI (acute hepatic porphyria) and OXLUMO (primary hyperoxaluria), plus a broad partnered pipeline: inclisiran (cholesterol, partnered with Novartis, sold as Leqvio), fitusiran (hemophilia), zilebesiran (hypertension, with Roche), and earlier CNS/ocular programs with Regeneron. Major alliances: Regeneron, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi.
Revenue mix (FMP segmentation — note it is partial):
- By product (FY2025 as reported to FMP): GIVLAARI $308M, ONPATTRO $173M — FMP does not break out AMVUTTRA/vutrisiran or net product revenue at the drug level, so this understates the picture. The clean signal is the total: FY25 net revenue $3.71B, +65% YoY, with the delta driven by the TTR franchise and collaboration/royalty income (Leqvio royalties from Novartis).
- By geography (FMP, product-revenue basis, FY2025): United States $1.73B (74%) · Europe $406M · other non-US $177M. The base is US-concentrated — a pricing-power strength and a US drug-pricing-policy risk (§11).
The strategic story is a platform reaching scale: one validated RNAi engine (GalNAc-conjugated siRNA, largely liver-targeted) producing repeatable, durable, infrequently-dosed medicines — with the TTR cardiomyopathy opportunity as the value inflection and hypertension (zilebesiran) as the next large-market shot.
2. The expert thesis
There is no expert coverage of ALNY in the Synthos knowledge base. total_claims = 0; there are zero net-bullish (or bearish) voices to cite. We will not manufacture conviction we do not have: there are no claim_id values to reconcile, and this deep dive is therefore explicitly fundamentals- and quant-driven, not conviction-driven.
What that means for the reader:
- The verdict below rests entirely on the reported financials (FMP annual/quarterly), live analyst estimates, valuation math, technicals, and the balance sheet — all traceable to the data file.
- Where a conviction-track name (see our Lilly note) can lean on a broad expert panel, ALNY cannot. That absence is itself a reason we cap conviction at Moderate and size the position as a satellite, not a core.
- The Street is constructive (39 Buy / 12 Hold / 1 Sell; consensus target $451), which we show as context in §6 — but sell-side ratings are not Synthos KB conviction and we do not anchor to them.
3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases
The one-glance judgment — three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics (not probabilities we can't honestly calibrate):
| Score | 0–10 | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Downside Risk (lower = safer) | 5 · Moderate | Net cash (−0.47× net-debt/EBITDA) and beta 0.27 make it financially and price-wise sturdy; offsetting that, 72× trailing / 42× forward leaves no error margin, it is already −36% off its high, and revenue leans heavily on one franchise. |
| Growth Quality | 8 · High | ~26% forward revenue CAGR, first profitable year (FY25), 82% gross margin, ROIC ~20%, ROE strong, and a genuinely hard-to-replicate RNAi platform. Not yet a long profit track record — hence 8 not 9. |
| Exponential Potential | 7 · High | Growth is accelerating (rev +65% FY25, Q1'26 +96% YoY), and at $42B the cap is small enough to multiply against an expanding RNAi TAM (TTR cardiomyopathy + hypertension optionality). A far bigger name with the same numbers would score lower. |
The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions shown; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value). We deliberately do not attach probabilities: the base case is by definition the expected path, so a weighted blend would just restate it with false precision. The cases bound the range; the scores summarize them.
| Case | Key assumptions | Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | TTR cardiomyopathy ramp beats and zilebesiran/pipeline optionality gains credibility. FY27E EPS beats to ~$12.3 (vs $10.52 cons); a high-growth platform holds a premium ~38×. | ~$470 (+50%) |
| Base (our anchor) | Estimates roughly hit — FY27E EPS $10.52; a durable ~25% grower that just turned profitable earns a ~31× forward multiple. | ~$330 (+5%) |
| Bear | Competitive pressure in TTR (tafamidis, Ionis, others), pricing erosion, or a pipeline setback; the market de-rates a still-rich name. FY27E EPS misses to ~$8.4; multiple compresses to ~22×. | ~$185 (−41%) |
Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$330 (+5%), with the full $185–$470 span as the honest range. Our base sits well below the Street's $451 consensus: the sell-side is pricing outer-year franchise dominance we are not willing to underwrite without expert corroboration, and at 42× forward earnings the reward-to-risk is balanced, not lopsided. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures.
4. Exponential Potential
Synthos separates compounders (durable high returns on capital) from exponentials (accelerating, multi-baggers-from-here). ALNY leans toward the exponential end — a platform at its profitability inflection with the acceleration still ahead of the deceleration:
- Forward growth: revenue CAGR FY25→FY30E ~25.8% ($3.71B → $11.71B est); EPS inflects from $2.33 (FY25) to $7.44 (FY26E) to $19.53 (FY30E) as operating leverage kicks in.
- Acceleration (the 2nd derivative) is positive right now: revenue +65% (FY25) and Q1'26 +96% YoY ($1.167B vs $594M). The quarterly path — Q1'25 $594M → Q4'25 $1.10B → Q1'26 $1.17B — shows the ramp is still steepening, unlike a mature megacap. From here consensus has growth moderating toward the mid-20s%, but the inflection is live, not past.
- Room to run: at $42B the law of large numbers is not yet binding. The ATTR-amyloidosis market alone is multibillion-dollar and under-diagnosed, TTR cardiomyopathy expands it materially, and hypertension (zilebesiran) is a genuinely large next leg. A 3× from here implies a ~$125B company — large, but not implausible for a category-leading platform.
- Reinvestment runway: R&D is ~33% of revenue (still investing heavily in the pipeline) while the model has just flipped to positive FCF ($465M FY25 vs −$43M FY24) — the reinvestment story is intact and now self-funding.
Exponential Potential: High (7/10). Own it for accelerating, platform-driven growth with real optionality — sized as a tactical position because the valuation is full and there is no expert-panel ballast.
5. Financials (real numbers — FMP annual/quarterly)
- Revenue: FY25 $3.71B, +65.2% (FY24 $2.25B, +23% on FY23 $1.83B). The 65% print is the standout — genuine acceleration at scale.
- Quarterly trajectory (real acceleration): Q1'25 $594M → Q2 $774M → Q3 $1.25B → Q4 $1.10B → Q1'26 $1.17B (+96% YoY). Lumpy quarter-to-quarter (collaboration/royalty timing) but the YoY line is unambiguous.
- Profitability inflection (the headline): FY25 is the first profitable year — net income $313.7M (vs −$278M FY24, −$440M FY23), diluted EPS $2.33 (vs −$2.18). EBITDA turned positive to $631M (from −$179M). Q1'26 net income $206M, diluted EPS $1.51.
- Margins: gross 81.8% (FY25), EBITDA margin ~21.6% TTM, net 13.5% TTM — early-stage operating leverage as revenue outgrows a heavy fixed R&D base.
- Returns: ROE ~98% TTM (flattered by a thin equity base), ROIC ~19.7%, ROA ~11.3% — respectable for a biotech just crossing breakeven.
- Cash flow: operating CF $524M FY25, capex ~−$59M, FCF $465M — a clean flip from FY24's −$43M. FCF turning durably positive is the tell that the platform now funds itself.
- Balance sheet: cash & short-term investments $2.91B, total debt $1.28B → net cash ~$379M (net-debt/EBITDA −0.47×). Current ratio 3.1×. Financially sturdy; no solvency question.
6. Valuation — priced in or room?
There is no way to call ALNY cheap on trailing numbers (72× EPS, 9.7× sales, 45× EV/EBITDA, 39× book). The growth defense is that EPS compounds faster than the multiple: on live consensus the forward P/E steps down 42× (FY26E) → 30× (FY27E) → 24× (FY28E) → 16× (FY30E) — the multiple compresses hard even at a flat price if estimates hit. A reverse read: today's ~$313 already embeds a mid-20s% multi-year revenue CAGR and continued margin expansion, so the setup is priced for execution with modest cushion. Street targets (context): consensus $451, high $530, low $370 — the sell-side is markedly more bullish than our $330 base, largely on outer-year franchise assumptions we discount absent expert corroboration. FMP letter rating "B" flags the tension cleanly: strong return-on-capital scores (ROE/ROA 5/5) against maximally stretched valuation scores (P/E, P/B, D/E all 1/5). Not a value buy; a quality-growth-at-a-full-price buy, which is exactly why it is a satellite.
7. Technicals (from the tech block)
- Trend: mixed. $312.78 sits above the 50-DMA ($295.83) but below the 200-DMA ($366.93) — a recovering short-term trend inside a broken longer-term one. MACD mildly positive (+1.4).
- Location: −36.3% off the 52-week high ($491), only +12.5% off the 52-week low ($278) — the max drawdown from peak is −36%. This is a name that has been de-rated, not one making new highs.
- Momentum: RSI(14) 68.6 — approaching overbought (<70), so near-term entry is a touch stretched after the bounce off the lows.
- Relative strength (the tell): ALNY −2.9% 12-mo vs SPY +20.6% and QQQ +30.3%; −4.9% 3-mo vs SPY +13.7%, QQQ +22.0%; −21% 6-mo. Persistent, material underperformance of both the market and the Nasdaq-100 over every window — the fundamentals accelerated while the stock lagged, which is the crux of the setup.
- Read: technicals do not confirm a leadership uptrend. The bull interpretation is a de-rated grower repairing its chart (reclaiming the 50-DMA); the bear interpretation is a stock still below its 200-DMA with RSI running hot. Prefer scaling in / a pullback toward the 50-DMA over chasing.
8. Moat & competitive position
Alnylam's moat is platform + IP + first-mover scale in RNAi: a validated GalNAc-siRNA delivery engine, deep foundational intellectual property in RNAi, durable infrequent-dosing product profiles, and the manufacturing/clinical know-how of the category pioneer. The switching-cost and data advantages compound as the platform produces repeat wins (patisiran → vutrisiran → inclisiran → zilebesiran). The threats are real: in TTR amyloidosis it competes with tafamidis (Pfizer) and antisense rivals (Ionis/Akcea, and BridgeBio's acoramidis), and next-gen gene-editing approaches (e.g. Intellia) could one day pressure the chronic-dosing model.
Peer set (FMP-supplied, market cap): Regeneron $67B, argenx $58B, Cigna $76B, Cencora $58B, Becton Dickinson $57B, Cardinal Health $56B, Edwards Lifesciences $54B, IDEXX $44B, Veeva $31B, Zoetis $31B. Note the FMP peer list is a broad healthcare basket, not RNAi comps — the truer competitive frame is Ionis, BridgeBio, Intellia, and large-pharma TTR incumbents (Pfizer). Among the listed peers, ALNY carries one of the highest growth rates and the richest sales multiple — justified only if the ramp persists.
9. Management, capital allocation & guidance
- Leadership: CEO Yvonne Greenstreet (long-tenured, oversaw the pivot to profitability). ~2,230 employees.
- Capital allocation: heavy, productive R&D (~33% of revenue) into the pipeline while the model just turned FCF-positive; net debt fell as FY25 debt was paid down (net-debt/EBITDA moved to net cash). No dividend, no buyback — appropriate for a growth-stage platform reinvesting at ~20% ROIC.
- Insider activity: the recent Form 4 cluster (filed 2026-06-03, director David Pyott) is a routine option-exercise-and-sell (M-Exempt exercises at $70.20 strike, S-Sales at ~$298–$303) plus a director stock-option award (Cravatt) — i.e. normal compensation-driven activity, not a red-flag cluster of discretionary selling.
- Guidance: management's own forward guidance is not represented as a weighted voice in the Synthos KB for this name (no
mgmtclaims ingested). Treat company guidance from the earnings release as directional; our numbers key off FMP analyst consensus, labeled as estimates.
10. Catalysts & what to watch
- Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (Q2'26; Street EPS $2.04, revenue ~$1.32B). The key line: TTR-franchise (AMVUTTRA) net product revenue and its growth rate — the single most important number in the story.
- TTR cardiomyopathy uptake: share capture vs tafamidis and acoramidis — the core of the bull case.
- Zilebesiran (hypertension): late-stage data and partnership economics with Roche — the largest new-market optionality.
- Margin/FCF durability: confirmation that FY25's profit and positive FCF persist rather than revert with R&D step-ups.
- Leqvio (inclisiran) royalties: Novartis's commercial traction flows to Alnylam as high-margin royalty income.
Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): two consecutive quarters of TTR-franchise growth deceleration; a competitive efficacy/label setback in ATTR; FCF slipping back negative; or a net-margin reversal as R&D re-accelerates without matching revenue.
11. Key risks
- Franchise concentration (structural): the growth curve leans heavily on the TTR-amyloidosis franchise. A single competitive or clinical setback there hits the whole thesis.
- Valuation / de-rating: 72× trailing, 42× forward — already −36% from the high, proving the multiple can compress fast on any disappointment.
- Competition: tafamidis (Pfizer), acoramidis (BridgeBio), Ionis antisense, and longer-term gene editing (Intellia) all target Alnylam's core indications.
- US pricing policy: ~74% US revenue concentration → exposed to drug-pricing politics, IRA negotiation, and PBM/formulary friction.
- No expert-panel ballast: with 0 Synthos KB voices, we lack the independent-conviction corroboration we require for a core position — a governance risk on conviction, not on the business.
- Pipeline binary risk: biotech trials fail; zilebesiran and earlier programs carry standard clinical/regulatory risk.
12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring
Buy — Tactical. ALNY is a genuinely high-quality, accelerating platform that just cleared the profitability inflection every platform biotech aims for — FY25 revenue +65% to $3.71B, first annual profit ($314M net, $2.33 diluted EPS), positive FCF ($465M), and a net-cash balance sheet with beta 0.27. Growth Quality (8) and Exponential Potential (7) are both high, and the acceleration is live through Q1'26 (+96% YoY). But two honest checks keep it out of the core: (1) the valuation is full (42× forward, base-case FV only ~+5% to $330, below the Street's $451), and (2) there is zero expert coverage in the Synthos KB, so the call is fundamentals/quant only. The 12-month underperformance (−3% vs SPY +21%, QQQ +30%) is the tension — the business accelerated while the stock de-rated.
- Sizing: satellite, ~1–3% — a growth kicker sized for its single-franchise concentration and full price. Scale in / prefer pullbacks toward the 50-DMA (~$296) over chasing an RSI-69 bounce.
- Monitoring: re-underwrite on the §10 tripwires; formal re-score each earnings print, with the 2026-07-30 TTR-franchise revenue line as the first checkpoint. This verdict is logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-03 at $312.78.
- Single biggest risk: franchise concentration — the whole growth curve leans on the TTR-amyloidosis ramp; a competitive or clinical setback there, at this multiple, would hurt.
Provenance & disclosures
- Traceability: 0 KB claims, breadth 0 — there is no expert coverage of ALNY in the Synthos knowledge base, and this note states that plainly. No
claim_idvalues are cited because none exist; the verdict is fundamentals- and quant-driven. Fabricated conviction is structurally impossible (claim-ID reconciliation). - Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-03-31 (Q1'26) · estimates & prices 2026-07-02/03. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP), labeled as estimates.
- Segmentation caveat: FMP product segmentation does not break out the AMVUTTRA/vutrisiran (TTR) revenue that drives the story; totals and geography are used instead, and the peer list is a broad healthcare basket rather than RNAi comps.
- Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
- Version: 2026-07-03. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").