Assurant AIZ
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · Synthos Deep Dive · 2026-07-03
The Overview
Assurant sells the protection plans and warranties you get when you buy a phone, a car, or rent an apartment — plus insurance that mortgage lenders buy to cover homes when a borrower's own policy lapses. It's a boring, steady, cash-generating business. Two-thirds of profit comes from the phone/car/warranty side (they call it "Global Lifestyle"), and the rest from housing insurance, which can get hit hard in a bad hurricane year.
Is the stock cheap or expensive? Cheap on the fundamentals — you pay about $14 for every $1 of annual profit, well below the market — but the price has run up a lot recently and sits right at its 12-month high, so you'd be buying at the top of the range. Our verdict is Watch: a good company, fairly priced, better bought on a dip than chased here.
Here's what our three scores mean in everyday terms:
- Downside Risk 4/10 (fairly low). Cheap valuation, little debt, and a stock that doesn't swing wildly — the main wildcard is a bad storm season hitting the housing business.
- Growth Quality 6/10 (solid, not spectacular). It grows earnings at a steady clip, helped by buying back its own shares, and earns good returns — but it's a mature insurer, not a fast grower.
- Exponential Potential 3/10 (low). Don't expect this to multiply. It's a compounder that grinds higher, not a rocket.
The one big worry: a severe hurricane or catastrophe season can blow a hole in the housing-insurance results and the stock in any given quarter. Management even reports earnings "excluding catastrophes" precisely because that line is so lumpy.
Putting a number on it: our fair-value estimate is $290 against a current price of $285.65 — real upside if our numbers are right.
Our summary metrics
Low beta (0.57), net-debt/EBITDA 0.38×, cheap at 14× — but RSI 78 at the 52-wk high and cat-exposed Housing.
~12% forward EPS CAGR (buyback-aided), 17% ROE, steady Lifestyle compounding, but low-single-digit organic guide.
A mature specialty insurer; no acceleration, no large-TAM optionality — a compounder, not an exponential.
What does “fair value” mean?
Fair value is Synthos’s estimate of what one share is worth today, based on our model of the company’s future cash generation and the risks to it. It is not a price target or a prediction of where the stock trades next quarter — it’s the price where we think risk and reward are balanced. Above it, you’re paying for outcomes better than our base case; below it, the market is offering a margin of safety.
The model’s inputs and weightings are proprietary — they’re the product. What we publish is the output, plus an independent, public-math cross-check further down the page (“Check our number”) so you can judge it for yourself.
What do the 5 tiers mean? (Core · Tactical · Watch · Hold · Avoid)
Exponential Potential
A mature specialty insurer; no acceleration, no large-TAM optionality — a compounder, not an exponential.
What could take this further than the base case — and where the market may be underpricing it. Full forward-growth and acceleration math in Deeper analysis, §4 below.
Deeper analysis
Technicals, fundamentals, valuation, and the full expert-claim evidence panel — the detail behind the numbers above.
Reference table
| Street consensus | $285.83 (high $310 / low $246; 11 Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell) — context, not our anchor |
| Valuation | 14× trailing EPS · 13× FY26E · 12× FY27E · EV/S 1.1× · EV/EBITDA 9.0× · P/B 2.4× · FCF yield ~10.5% |
| Technicals | Extended — $279, at the 52-wk high, RSI(14) 78 (overbought), +41% 12-mo (SPY +21%), above 50/200-DMA |
| Conviction | Low breadth — 0 expert voices, 0 traceable claims in the Synthos KB; call rests on fundamentals + quant |
| Position sizing | Satellite value/quality holding, ~1–3%; prefer to add on a pullback off the high |
What the experts actually said
No independent expert claims in the Synthos knowledge base yet for AIZ — this dive is fundamentals- and technicals-driven, not panel-driven.
Price & moving averages 12 months · 50 & 200-day averages · 52-week range
Solid line = price · dashed line = 50-day average · dotted line = 200-day average · the two thin horizontal lines mark the 52-week high and low. Price above both averages is an uptrend.
Data summary: last close $285.65, 3% above the 50-day average ($278), 17% above the 200-day average ($244) — an uptrend. 5% below the 52-week high of $302, 39% above the 52-week low of $205.
Bollinger Bands 20-day average ± 2 standard deviations
The shaded band widens when the stock gets more volatile. Riding the upper edge = strong momentum (sometimes stretched); the lower edge = weak / potentially oversold.
Data summary: price $285.65 is currently inside the band (band $274–$296).
RSI (14) momentum gauge · 0–100
Above 70 (overbought zone, shaded) = overbought, below 30 (oversold zone, shaded) = oversold. Currently 55.
MACD 12 / 26 / 9 · trend & momentum
The MACD line crossing above the signal line (bars flip to the up color) = momentum turning up; crossing below (bars flip to the down color) = turning down. Bar height = the size of that gap.
Data summary: MACD is currently below its signal line by 0.21, negative momentum.
Relative performance vs S&P 500 & its sector (XLF (sector)), set to 100 a year ago
Solid = AIZ · dashed = S&P 500 · dotted = XLF (sector). A rising line means it is beating that benchmark — the sector line shows whether it is a leader or laggard within its own group.
Forward revenue & earnings actual → estimate · "FY" = fiscal year, "E" = estimate
Darker bars = actual results, brighter = analyst estimates. Taller bars to the right = expected growth.
Key stats an RIA wants
1. What it is
Assurant, Inc. (NYSE: AIZ) is a ~130-year-old (founded 1892, formerly Fortis) global specialty insurer and protection-products company headquartered in Atlanta, ~14,200 employees. It runs two reporting segments today:
- Global Lifestyle — mobile device protection & trade-in, extended warranties/service contracts for electronics and appliances, vehicle protection plans, and credit/other insurance. This is the growth and cash engine, sold through partners (carriers, retailers, OEMs, auto dealers).
- Global Housing — lender-placed homeowners insurance (the big one), manufactured-home and flood coverage, renters insurance, and specialty products. Higher-margin but catastrophe-exposed.
Revenue mix (FY2025, FMP product segmentation):
- Global Lifestyle $9.94B (77.5%) · Global Housing $2.91B (22.5%). Lifestyle has grown from $7.36B (2023) to $9.94B (2025); Housing from $2.01B to $2.91B. (A legacy "Global Preneed" segment was divested; it last appears in 2020 data.)
- By geography (FMP): the disclosed split is dominated by the United States (~$10.5B of $12.8B); historically ~15–18% of revenue is non-US (Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific). This is a US-centric book with a meaningful but shrinking international tail.
The strategic story management tells is Global Lifestyle scaling (subscriber growth in mobile protection, trade-in volumes, a growing US extended-service-contract program, and auto) funding buybacks and a rising dividend, while Housing is run for cash with catastrophe risk actively reinsured.
2. The expert thesis
There is no expert coverage of AIZ in the Synthos knowledge base. total_claims = 0, net_bullish_voices = 0, and the top array is empty. No podcast, letter, or analyst in our distilled panel has made a traceable, dated claim on Assurant.
What this means for the verdict. Per Synthos house rules, we do not fabricate conviction. Every name that enters on the conviction track cites real claim_id values; AIZ has none to cite. So this note is explicitly fundamentals- and quant-driven: the scores, cases, and verdict below are built entirely from FMP financials, analyst estimates, the SEC 8-K guidance, and the technicals — not from expert sentiment. Treat the absence of coverage as a breadth signal (nobody we track is banging the table here, in either direction), not as a hidden bull or bear case.
3. Synthos scores & the Bull / Base / Bear cases
The one-glance judgment — three scores, 0–10, each anchored to real metrics (not probabilities we can't honestly calibrate):
| Score | 0–10 | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Downside Risk (lower = safer) | 4 · Low-Moderate | Cheap (14× trailing, 9× EV/EBITDA), beta 0.57, net-debt/EBITDA 0.38×, ROE 17% — structurally sturdy. Offsets: RSI 78 at the 52-wk high (stretched entry) and Housing catastrophe tail risk. |
| Growth Quality | 6 · Solid | ~12% forward EPS CAGR (FY25 $17.29 → FY28E $24.41), but a chunk is buyback-driven and management guides only low-single-digit adjusted EPS growth ex-cat for 2026. Steady Lifestyle compounding, 17% ROE, but not a high-growth engine. |
| Exponential Potential | 3 · Low | Mature specialty insurer. Growth is not accelerating (revenue +15% FY23 → +8% FY25), the TAM is incremental, and at a $13.8B cap there is no large-TAM optionality. A durable compounder, not a multibagger. |
The three cases (our own scenario model — assumptions shown; each target is a ~12–18-month fair value). We deliberately do not attach probabilities: the base case is the expected path, so a weighted blend would just restate it with false precision. The cases bound the range; the scores above summarize them.
| Case | Key assumptions | Fair value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Lifestyle keeps compounding double-digit EBITDA; a benign catastrophe year lets Housing earnings drop through; buybacks continue. FY27E EPS beats to ~$24; the market re-rates a proven, low-beta compounder to ~15×. | ~$355 (+27%) |
| Base (our anchor) | Estimates roughly hit — FY27E EPS ~$22.4; a steady ~12% EPS compounder with 17% ROE holds its current ~13× forward multiple. | ~$290 (+4%) |
| Bear | A severe catastrophe season hits Housing; Lifestyle growth stalls; the multiple de-rates on a cyclical/cat scare. FY26–27 EPS misses toward ~$18–19; multiple compresses to ~11–12×. | ~$220 (−21%) |
Synthos fair value = the base case, ~$290 (+4%), with the full $220–$355 span as the honest range. This anchor sits almost exactly at the Street's $285.83 consensus — appropriate for a fairly-valued, well-covered name where we have no differentiated expert edge. This is a tracked call — the Forecaster Scorecard grades it once it matures. The thin upside to base fair value is exactly why the verdict is Watch, not Buy.
4. Exponential Potential
Synthos separates compounders (durable high returns on capital) from exponentials (accelerating, multi-baggers-from-here). AIZ is a decent compounder with essentially no exponential character:
- Forward growth: revenue CAGR FY25→FY28E ~6.3% ($12.81B → $15.38B, est.); EPS CAGR ~12.2% ($17.29 → $24.41E) — the gap between the two is margin plus share count shrinking (52.2M shares FY24 → ~49.7M FY26E via buybacks). Honest read: much of the EPS growth is financial engineering on top of mid-single-digit revenue.
- Acceleration (the 2nd derivative) is flat-to-negative: revenue growth +15.1% (FY23) → +6.7% (FY24) → +7.9% (FY25) → ~+8.5% (FY26E). No inflection; a mature specialty insurer growing with its end markets.
- Room to run: the protection/warranty and lender-placed-insurance markets are incremental, not a $100B+ greenfield TAM. At a $13.8B cap the name can compound, but there is no realistic path to a 3–5× re-rate from a market-share or new-market shock.
- Reinvestment runway: capital is returned (buybacks + dividend), not plowed into a high-ROIC growth flywheel — the opposite of an exponential's reinvestment profile.
Exponential Potential: Low (3/10). Own AIZ, if at all, for cheap, low-beta, ~10% total-return compounding (mid-single-digit EPS growth + buyback + ~1.2% yield), not for a fast multibagger. This honest framing is why it sits in a value/satellite sleeve, not a growth or degen tier.
5. Financials (real numbers — FMP annual/quarterly)
- Revenue: FY25 $12.81B, +7.9% (FY24 $11.88B, +6.7% on FY23 $11.13B). Steady mid-to-high-single-digit top line, led by Global Lifestyle.
- Quarterly trajectory: Q1'25 $3.07B → Q2 $3.16B → Q3 $3.23B → Q4 $3.35B → Q1'26 $3.42B (+11.3% YoY). Consistent sequential growth; no drama.
- Margins: the "gross margin" FMP shows (~78%) is an insurance-accounting artifact — the honest read is EBITDA margin ~12.2% TTM and net margin ~7.6% TTM. EBITDA rose from $1.11B (FY23) to $1.26B (FY24) to $1.45B (FY25).
- Earnings: net income $872.7M FY25 (+14.8% on FY24 $760.2M); diluted EPS $17.39 vs $14.46. Q1'26 already printed diluted EPS $5.46 (net income $274.1M, +87% YoY — flattered by a light catastrophe quarter vs a heavy Q1'25).
- Cash flow: operating CF $1.83B, capex −$236M, FCF ~$1.60B FY25 (FCF yield ~10.5% on market cap — genuinely strong for an insurer). FCF funds ~$304M of buybacks and ~$168M of dividends.
- Balance sheet: total debt $2.21B, cash & short-term investments $4.55B, net debt only $0.37B, net-debt/EBITDA 0.38× — investment-grade, conservatively levered. Book value ~$5.87B (P/B 2.4×); note the very low current ratio (0.14×) is normal for an insurer (deferred/unearned premium reserves sit in current liabilities).
6. Valuation — cheap, and that's the point
On the numbers AIZ is inexpensive: 14× trailing EPS, ~13× FY26E, ~12× FY27E, 9.0× EV/EBITDA, 1.1× EV/sales, 2.4× P/B, and a ~10.5% FCF yield. For a business earning a 17% ROE with a fortress balance sheet, that is a reasonable-to-cheap multiple — the FMP letter rating is "A" (overall score 4/5). The PEG-style tension: ~12% forward EPS growth against a ~13× forward multiple is fair value, not a screaming bargain, especially once you discount the buyback-aided portion of EPS growth.
The problem is not the multiple — it's entry timing and thin upside. The stock is up +41% over 12 months, sits at a fresh 52-week high, and our base-case fair value (~$290) is only ~4% above spot and essentially on top of the Street's $285.83 consensus (high $310 / low $246). You're paying a fair price for a fair company at the top of its recent range. Street targets (context): consensus $285.83 — we anchor at ~$290, deliberately close, because we hold no differentiated expert edge here (KB breadth 0). A fairly-valued compounder at the high = Watch.
7. Technicals (from the tech block)
- Trend: up. $279.48 sits above the 50-DMA ($250.80) and 200-DMA ($230.96), 50 above 200 (golden-cross posture). MACD +6.4 (positive).
- Location: exactly at the 52-week high ($279.48) — 0.0% off the high, +51% off the 52-week low ($184.56), zero max drawdown from peak. A leadership name with no near-term overhead resistance, but no pullback cushion either.
- Momentum: RSI(14) 77.9 — overbought (>70). This is the clearest technical caution flag: buying at a fresh high with RSI approaching 80 is a stretched entry.
- Relative strength: AIZ +41.4% 12-mo vs SPY +20.6% and QQQ +30.3%; +29.2% 3-mo vs SPY +13.7%. Strong, persistent outperformance — but that outperformance is why it now looks extended.
- Read: technicals say the trend is healthy but the entry is hot. No structural reason to sell, but the overbought/at-high combination argues for patience — a pullback toward the rising 50-DMA (~$251) would be a materially better risk/reward add. Reinforces Watch.
8. Moat & competitive position
Assurant's edge is embedded distribution and scale in niche protection lines, not brand or a patent. In Global Lifestyle it is deeply integrated into carrier, retailer, and OEM workflows (device protection, trade-in logistics, extended-service programs) — switching costs and operational complexity make it sticky for partners. In Global Housing it is a share leader in lender-placed insurance, a specialized, regulated niche with few credible competitors and high barriers (tracking systems, regulatory relationships). The moat is narrow but real; the risks to it are partner concentration (large carrier/retailer relationships), pricing cycles, and catastrophe/reinsurance costs.
Peer set (FMP, market cap ~$9–14B mid-cap financials): American Financial Group (AFG, $11.9B), Globe Life (GL, $14.0B), Old Republic (ORI, $10.2B), Reinsurance Group of America (RGA, $14.5B), plus non-insurers FMP lists as comps — FactSet (FDS), SEI (SEIC), Comerica (CMA), First Horizon (FHN), Invesco (IVZ), Jefferies (JEF). The insurance peers are the honest comparison; AIZ's specialty/protection niche and Lifestyle growth engine differentiate it from vanilla P&C or life carriers. It trades in line with the group on earnings, at a premium on P/B (justified by its higher ROE and fee-like Lifestyle income).
9. Management, capital allocation & guidance
- Capital allocation: shareholder-friendly and disciplined — FY25 returned ~$304M in buybacks + ~$168M dividends (dividend $3.44/yr, ~1.2% yield, payout only ~17% of earnings — well covered and growing). Net-debt/EBITDA held at 0.38×. This is a return-of-capital story, not a reinvestment-for-growth story.
- Insider activity: the sampled window shows routine director stock awards (688-share grants on 2026-05-22) and two small officer open-market sales (EVP Lonergan 7,000 sh @ $262.71 on 2026-06-22; SVP/CAO DiRienzo 2,000 sh @ $255.68) — ordinary diversification near highs, no alarming cluster of discretionary selling.
- Management's own guidance (the earnings-call track, half-weighted — they talk their own book): Guidance was available via the SEC 8-K (Q1'26 earnings release, filed 2026-05-05). Management raised the 2026 enterprise outlook after a record Q1, and now expects Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS, both excluding reportable catastrophes, to grow low-single-digits (high-single-digits on an underlying basis, ex-prior-year-reserve-development) off a 2025 base of $1,734M adjusted EBITDA ex-cat and $22.81 adjusted EPS ex-cat. They also guided $300–$350M of share repurchases (upper end of range) for 2026. CEO Keith Demmings framed Q1'26 as "Assurant's best quarter in history driven by record earnings in Global Lifestyle." Honest read: the "record 87% net-income jump" is largely a soft-catastrophe comparison vs a heavy Q1'25; the underlying ex-cat growth is the mid-single-digit-ish number, and the headline growth guide is only low-single-digits. Take the self-congratulation at half weight.
10. Catalysts & what to watch
- Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (Q2'26; Street EPS $5.16, revenue ~$3.43B). The key lines: Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA growth (the engine) and Housing catastrophe losses (the swing factor).
- 2026 hurricane/catastrophe season: the single biggest quarter-to-quarter swing for Housing earnings and book value; a benign season is the bull path, a severe one the bear path.
- Global Lifestyle momentum: subscriber growth in mobile protection, trade-in volumes, the ramping US extended-service-contract program, and auto — sustained double-digit Lifestyle EBITDA is the whole compounding thesis.
- Capital return: execution on the $300–$350M buyback and any dividend increase — the lever that turns mid-single-digit revenue into ~12% EPS growth.
- Valuation normalization: whether the stock digests its overbought, at-the-high condition (a pullback would improve the entry).
Thesis tripwires (what would change the call): a major catastrophe season that impairs book value; two quarters of stalling Lifestyle EBITDA; loss of a large distribution partner; or a de-rating below ~11× on a cyclical scare (bear) — conversely, a pullback to the low-$250s with the fundamentals intact would flip this from Watch toward Buy — Tactical.
11. Key risks
- Catastrophe volatility (structural): Global Housing earnings and book value are exposed to hurricanes/severe weather; management reports "ex-catastrophe" precisely because the GAAP line is lumpy. Reinsurance costs can rise and compress margins.
- Buyback-dependent EPS growth: a meaningful slice of forward EPS CAGR comes from share-count reduction, not organic earnings — management's own 2026 guide is only low-single-digit adjusted growth. If the multiple or buyback pace slips, growth disappoints.
- Entry/technical risk: at a fresh 52-week high with RSI ~78, near-term downside from a mean-reversion pullback is elevated even with no change in fundamentals.
- Partner concentration: Lifestyle revenue flows through large carriers, retailers, and OEMs; losing a major partner would dent the growth engine.
- Cyclicality / rate sensitivity: investment income and lender-placed volumes move with rates and the housing/credit cycle.
- No expert corroboration: breadth 0 in the KB — the thesis rests entirely on fundamentals/quant with no independent expert cross-check, in either direction.
12. Verdict, position sizing & monitoring
Watch. Assurant is a genuinely good, cheap, low-beta specialty insurer — 14× trailing, 9× EV/EBITDA, 17% ROE, net-debt/EBITDA 0.38×, ~10.5% FCF yield, a well-covered growing dividend, and a Global Lifestyle engine that compounds. In a vacuum that's a Buy-quality profile. But three things pull the verdict to Watch: (1) the base-case fair value (~$290) is only ~4% above spot and sits right on the Street's consensus — thin upside; (2) the stock is at its 52-week high with RSI ~78, a stretched entry; and (3) management itself guides only low-single-digit adjusted EPS growth for 2026, with the headline "record quarter" flattered by an easy catastrophe comparison. Good company, fair price, hot entry — wait for a better one.
- Sizing: if owned, a satellite value/quality position, ~1–3% — a steady compounder, not a core conviction holding (breadth 0). Prefer to initiate/add on a pullback toward the rising 50-DMA (~$251) rather than at the high.
- Monitoring: re-underwrite on the §10 tripwires; formal re-score each earnings print and after the catastrophe season. A pullback to the low-$250s with fundamentals intact would upgrade this toward Buy — Tactical.
- Single biggest risk: catastrophe volatility in Global Housing — one severe season swings earnings and book value.
This verdict is logged as a tracked Synthos call as of 2026-07-03 at $279.48.
Provenance & disclosures
- Traceability: 0 KB claims, breadth 0 — there is no expert coverage of AIZ in the Synthos knowledge base. This note is explicitly fundamentals- and quant-driven; no conviction is claimed or fabricated (claim-ID reconciliation makes fabrication structurally impossible).
- Data as-of: fundamentals 2026-03-31 (Q1'26) · estimates & prices 2026-07-02/03 · management guidance from the SEC 8-K earnings release filed 2026-05-05. Forward figures are analyst consensus (FMP) or our own scenario model, labeled as estimates.
- Management caveat: the 2026 outlook (raised; low-single-digit adjusted growth ex-cat; $300–$350M buyback) is management's own book, half-weighted by design and adjusted for the soft-catastrophe comparison.
- Not investment advice. Independent research, educational and informational only, never personalized. Hypothetical/forward figures are labeled; the only performance numbers Synthos will headline are the live, real-money Flagship's.
- Version: 2026-07-03. Prior versions available via the deep-dive version dropdown ("based on the info at the time").