Every constituent, scored 0–10 on Downside Risk (lower = safer), Growth Quality, and Exponential Potential, with price, YTD, a base-case fair value (and its bear–bull range), and a one-line take. Click a ticker for the full interactive report. ← research hub
◆ Accumulation band for XLI itself: roughly $175–$184 — the index is richly priced, so dollar-cost-averaging on dips toward the 50/200-day average (near $165) beats chasing new highs.
XLI (market-cap-weighted) vs RSPN (equal-weight), both rebased to 100 a year ago. When the cap-weighted line pulls ahead, the biggest names are carrying the index. Past year: XLI +24% vs RSPN +18% — a +6 pt spread, so a few mega-caps are carrying the index — concentration is ELEVATED.
How many of the 10 names are actually participating — a check on whether the index is broad-based or driven by a handful of mega-caps. Right now breadth looks broad.
| Name | Verdict | Risk | Growth | Exp | Price | YTD | Fair value (range) | Entry zone | One-line take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. | Buy — Core | 4 | 7 | 3 | — | -15.8% | $208 ($144–$248) | — | Verisk is a genuinely elite, wide-moat data monopoly on U.S. property-and-casualty insurance (67% gross margin, 54% EBITDA margin, ~29% return on invested capital) — but it grows revenue only ~6.5% a year, the stock still trades at ~28× trailing earnings after a brutal 40% drawdown, and there is no… |
| ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 3 | 6 | 2 | $242 | -5.8% | $268 ($209–$315) | $240–$242 | ADP is one of the highest-quality businesses in the S&P 500 — 25% ROIC, 69% ROE, a fortress balance sheet, ~30% adjusted EBIT margins and ~1.1M sticky clients — but it grows revenue only ~6% and EPS ~10%, so at 22× earnings you are paying a premium multiple for a slow, mature compounder that has… |
| GPN Global Payments Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +1.6% | $92 ($55–$130) | — | GPN is a cheap, cash-generative but heavily-indebted payments processor mid-way through a company-defining reshuffle — it bought Worldpay and sold Issuer Solutions in 2025 — trading at roughly 5.7× forward adjusted earnings while management guides to only ~5% organic growth; the whole call is… |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Buy — Tactical | 6 | 5 | 4 | — | +19.2% | $148 ($82–$205) | — | United is a genuinely improving, well-run legacy airline trading at a single-digit-to-low-teens earnings multiple, with a credible self-help story (premium/loyalty mix, deleveraging toward investment grade, capacity discipline) — but it is still a capital-intensive, fuel-exposed, cyclical… |
| EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | Watch | 4 | 8 | 5 | — | +26.6% | $850 ($590–$1085) | — | EMCOR is a quietly elite operator — FY25 revenue $16.99B (+16.6%), 38% return on equity, a net-cash balance sheet, and a *record* $15.6B backlog (+33% YoY) riding the data-center, electrification and reshoring build-out — but after a 46% 12-month run the shares already discount much of that, growth… |
| ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. | Watch | 5 | 7 | 3 | $364 | -18.2% | $470 ($345–$560) | — | Roper is a high-quality vertical-market-software serial acquirer — 69% gross margins, ~$2.5B FY25 free cash flow, recurring revenue — whose stock has fallen ~36% in a year and now trades at a *reasonable* mid-teens forward multiple; the base case is a re-rating back toward fair value, but coverage… |
| ALLE Allegion plc | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | -11.7% | $172 ($125–$205) | — | Allegion is the boring, high-quality locks-and-door-hardware business behind Schlage, Von Duprin and LCN — 45% gross margin, 32% ROE, steady cash — that the market has marked down 22% from its high on soft volumes and an ERP hiccup; at ~19× trailing and ~15× FY27E earnings it offers a reasonable… |
| DOV Dover Corporation | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | +9.5% | $235 ($175–$290) | — | Dover is a well-run, low-leverage, five-segment diversified industrial (FY25 revenue $8.09B, adjusted continuing EPS ~$8.01, book-to-bill above one in all five segments) that is quietly re-mixing toward secular-growth end markets — but at ~20× forward earnings on ~5% organic growth it is priced… |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | +25.8% | $232 ($175–$285) | — | IDEX is a genuinely high-quality, serially acquisitive niche-industrial compounder — 44% gross margin, ~9% ROIC, fortress-lite balance sheet — but at 26× forward adjusted earnings for roughly 3–4% organic growth the stock already prices in the quality, leaving little margin of safety and no… |
| RSG Republic Services, Inc. | Watch | 4 | 6 | 2 | — | +2.6% | $224 ($175–$268) | — | Republic Services is a fortress-quality, recession-resistant local-monopoly waste business compounding earnings at a steady high-single-digit clip — genuinely excellent, but at 31× trailing on ~9% EPS growth the stock already prices the quality, and 12 months of flat-to-down price action (−11% vs… |
| VLTO Veralto Corporation | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | -7.2% | $100 ($76–$120) | — | Veralto is a genuinely high-quality, cash-generative razor-and-blade franchise (water quality + product coding/marking) with 61% recurring revenue, 60% gross margins and 33% ROE — but at 24× trailing on ~5% revenue and ~9% EPS growth it is priced like a compounder for a business that grows like a… |
| XYL Xylem Inc. | Watch | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | -13.3% | $122 ($83–$154) | — | Xylem is a high-quality, defensive, secular-water compounder — clean balance sheet (0.7× net-debt/EBITDA), margins expanding toward ~23%, an enviable install base — but at ~29× trailing EPS on only ~5% organic growth, with the stock in a downtrend below its 200-day average and no expert coverage to… |
| CMI Cummins Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 4 | — | +29.6% | $700 ($500–$890) | — | Cummins is a best-in-class, cash-generative diesel-and-power franchise that has quietly transformed into a data-center backup-power story (Power Systems is now the profit engine), but after a +101% twelve-month run the stock trades at ~23× forward earnings into a still-cyclical truck market — a… |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +4.8% | $144 ($100–$167) | — | Emerson has successfully re-shaped itself from a sprawling conglomerate into a focused, higher-margin industrial-automation pure-play (FY25 revenue $18.0B, adjusted segment EBITA margin ~28%, ~$2.7B FCF), and management is now pivoting to shareholder returns — but the stock trades at a fair-to-full… |
| HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | Watch | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +9.7% | $510 ($400–$620) | — | Hubbell is a well-run, 138-year-old electrical/utility-grid supplier riding real secular tailwinds (grid modernization, datacenter power, electrification), but after the 2022-24 earnings surge the growth has slowed to high-single-digit sales / low-teens EPS, and at ~28× trailing the stock already… |
| J Jacobs Solutions Inc. | Watch | 5 | 6 | 4 | — | -3.5% | $150 ($95–$175) | — | Jacobs is a post-spin, asset-light engineering and consulting pure-play riding the data-center / semiconductor / water / energy build-out — record $27B backlog (1.4× book-to-bill), management raising FY26 guidance twice, adjusted EPS compounding mid-teens — but the GAAP numbers are muddied by the… |
| JCI Johnson Controls International p | Watch | 5 | 6 | 4 | — | +17.5% | $152 ($105–$180) | — | JCI has become a cleaner, higher-margin pure-play buildings company — thermal management, controls, fire/security, and increasingly data-center HVAC — and a new CEO is running a margin-expansion playbook that is showing up (Q2 FY26 adjusted EPS +45%, orders +30% organic, record $20B backlog). But… |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | Watch | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +20.8% | $300 ($225–$360) | — | Nordson is a best-in-class precision-dispensing compounder — 55% gross margin, 31% EBITDA margin, backlog +18% — but the stock already prices in that quality at ~25× forward earnings on only mid-single-digit organic growth, so the honest call is Watch: own the quality on a pullback, don't chase it… |
| OTIS Otis Worldwide Corporation | Watch | 5 | 6 | 2 | — | -16.3% | $82 ($63–$98) | — | Otis is a genuinely high-quality business — a razor-and-blades elevator model where ~65% of revenue is a sticky, recurring service annuity on ~2.5 million maintained units — but the stock is a low-growth, China-exposed, financially-leveraged compounder in a live downtrend, trading only modestly… |
| VRT Vertiv Holdings Co | Hold | 7 | 9 | 8 | — | +85.5% | $340 ($190–$470) | — | VRT is the "picks-and-shovels" power-and-cooling supplier to the AI data-center buildout — FY25 revenue +28% to $10.2B, adjusted operating margin expanding 400+ bps, management guiding ~30% organic growth for FY26 and adjusted EPS up ~51% — but the market already knows it (74× trailing, 50×… |
| CTAS Cintas Corporation | Hold | 6 | 8 | 3 | $181 | -3.6% | $176 ($130–$232) | — | Cintas is a genuinely elite, wide-moat route-density compounder (FY25 revenue $10.34B, record 51% gross margin, 41% ROE) — but the market already knows it, the stock trades at ~37× trailing on high-single-digit organic growth, and it has de-rated ~20% from its high. Great business, full-to-rich… |
| FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 8 | 6 | — | +86.6% | $1850 ($1050–$2450) | — | FIX is the "picks-and-shovels" mechanical and electrical contractor building the guts of AI datacenters, and the fundamentals are extraordinary right now — FY25 revenue +29.5% to $9.10B, Q1'26 organic revenue +51%, EPS more than doubled, backlog $12.45B (nearly 2× YoY), a net-cash balance sheet and… |
| GE GE Aerospace | Hold | 6 | 8 | 3 | — | +22.6% | $362 ($234–$437) | — | GE Aerospace is a genuinely elite, aftermarket-heavy engine franchise — 87% order growth, a $170B commercial-services backlog, and management "trending toward the high end" of 2026 guidance — but at $377.52 the stock trades *above* both our $362 base-case fair value and, on price, its own street… |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. | Hold | 6 | 8 | 4 | — | +31.9% | $181 ($117–$224) | — | Howmet is a genuinely elite aerospace-components franchise — record backlogs, 32% adjusted-EBITDA margins, ~17% ROIC, a fortress balance sheet and management raising guidance every quarter — but at 53× FY26E / 45× FY27E the market is already paying up for years of flawless execution, so our… |
| PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 8 | 6 | — | +58.3% | $720 ($430–$980) | — | PWR is the pick-and-shovel prime contractor for the electric-grid, generation and data-center "large-load" buildout — FY25 revenue grew ~20% to $28.4B with a record $48.5B backlog and management guiding adjusted EPS to *more than double* by 2030 — but you pay ~48× forward adjusted EPS for a… |
| TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | Hold | 6 | 8 | 4 | — | +1.4% | $1360 ($960–$1680) | — | TransDigm is a genuinely elite business — a "public private-equity firm" that buys sole-source, proprietary aerospace aftermarket parts and raises prices for decades — but the stock is up against a full 42× multiple, a stretched RSI, a heavy 5.9× debt load, and 12-month price *underperformance*… |
| AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. | Hold | 8 | 8 | 7 | $597 | +5.1% | $617 ($340–$750) | — | Axon is a genuinely elite public-safety compounder — a TASER hardware monopoly that has flywheeled into 95%-sticky evidence software (ARR $1.5B, +35%; net revenue retention 125%) with counter-drone and AI now inflecting at 300–700% growth — but at 56× FY27E non-GAAP EPS with a beta of 1.42 and RSI… |
| FAST Fastenal Company | Hold | 4 | 7 | 2 | $49 | +21.1% | $48 ($34–$58) | — | Fastenal is a genuinely elite business — ~29% return on invested capital, a fortress balance sheet, and a widening vending/Onsite distribution moat — but at 42.6× trailing earnings for high-single-digit, *decelerating* growth in a cyclical end-market, the price already reflects the quality; the… |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 7 | 3 | — | +14.3% | $232 ($183–$276) | — | AMETEK is a genuinely elite serial-acquirer industrial compounder — 37% gross margin, 26% operating margin, a fortress balance sheet and a decades-long record of buying niche instrument businesses and never taking a goodwill write-off — but at 35× trailing earnings on only mid-single-digit organic… |
| TT Trane Technologies plc | Hold | 5 | 7 | 3 | — | +22.8% | $460 ($355–$590) | — | Trane is a genuinely excellent, secular-tailwind-backed compounder — record $10.7B backlog, ~40% Commercial HVAC bookings growth, ~20% ROIC, fortress balance sheet — but at 37× trailing on a ~9% revenue grower with cyclical end-markets, the quality is already in the price; we rate it Watch and… |
| ETN Eaton Corporation plc | Hold | 6 | 7 | 5 | — | +25.1% | $415 ($300–$545) | — | Eaton is a best-in-class electrical-equipment compounder riding a real electrification/data-center order wave (Electrical Americas orders +42%, total electrical backlog +48%, FY26 organic guide *raised* to ~10%), but at ~30× forward adjusted earnings on ~10% organic revenue growth the good news is… |
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | Hold | 4 | 6 | 3 | — | +11.0% | $384 ($300–$460) | — | General Dynamics is a fortress-balance-sheet defense prime with a record ~$188B total backlog and a 2-to-1 book-to-bill, compounding earnings at a steady high-single-digit clip — but at 23× trailing and 22× forward on ~7% EPS growth, near its all-time high, the stock already reflects the good news… |
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 6 | 2 | — | +33.1% | $1210 ($820–$1470) | — | Grainger is a genuinely elite business — 48% ROE, a widening distribution moat, and management that keeps raising guidance — but the market already knows it: at 36× trailing earnings on ~7% revenue growth, the quality is fully paid for, so we rate it Watch and wait for a cheaper entry rather than… |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | Hold | 5 | 6 | 2 | — | +10.7% | $265 ($205–$320) | — | ITW is a genuinely elite operator — 26.5% operating margins, ~25% ROIC, a 60-plus-year dividend record and the famous "ITW Business Model" — but it is a mature, cyclically exposed, ~1%-organic-growth multi-industrial trading at ~25× earnings and 18.7× EV/EBITDA, i.e. a premium price for a… |
| LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +2.9% | $290 ($210–$345) | — | L3Harris is a well-run, mid-cap prime defense contractor riding a genuine demand tailwind (record $40.7B backlog, 1.4× book-to-bill, management raising FY26 EPS guidance) — but at 28× forward earnings, single-digit revenue growth, 2.8× leverage and mediocre returns on capital, the price already… |
| RTX RTX Corporation | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +8.6% | $205 ($140–$250) | — | RTX is a top-tier defense/aerospace prime riding a record $271B backlog and a genuine post-GTF earnings recovery (FY25 revenue +9.7% to $88.6B, adjusted EPS climbing double-digits), but at 37× trailing / 29× forward with only ~6% forward revenue growth, the multiple already prices the recovery — so… |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +22.0% | $289 ($218–$334) | — | Union Pacific is one of the highest-quality, widest-moat businesses in the S&P 500 — a two-railroad continental duopoly with a sub-60% operating ratio, ~40% net margin and 40% ROE — but at 23× earnings on ~10% forward EPS growth the stock is priced for perfection, and the pending Norfolk Southern… |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technolog | Hold | 5 | 6 | 3 | — | +22.8% | $268 ($200–$330) | — | Wabtec is a genuinely high-quality, wide-moat rail-equipment compounder — record $9.25B backlog, margins grinding higher, mid-teens forward EPS growth — but at 37× trailing and ~25× forward on a low-single-digit-growth, cyclical end market, the stock already prices in the good news; we rate it… |
| CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | +68.2% | $845 ($540–$1155) | — | Caterpillar is a genuinely excellent, well-run cyclical that has been re-rated by the market into an AI-infrastructure/data-center-power proxy — the fundamentals are real (FY25 revenue $67.6B, ROE 47.5%, FCF $10.3B), but at 32× FY27E earnings the stock is priced for a secular growth story on top of… |
| EFX Equifax Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | -20.7% | $205 ($150–$275) | — | Equifax is a wide-moat, oligopoly credit-and-workforce data business whose earnings are re-accelerating as new products and a cloud rebuild kick in — but it sits at the mercy of the U.S. mortgage cycle, carries real leverage, and the stock has already de-rated 35% from its high, so this is a Watch… |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | +1.7% | $82 ($58–$104) | — | Ingersoll Rand is a genuinely well-run, aftermarket-rich compressor and flow-control compounder (FY25 revenue $7.65B, 21% EBITDA margin, strong FCF) whose IRX operating system and serial M&A have compounded value for years — but at ~54× GAAP earnings and ~21× EV/EBITDA on roughly 5% forward revenue… |
| LII Lennox International Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | +17.4% | $610 ($390–$755) | — | Lennox is a genuinely high-quality HVAC franchise — 72% ROE, 33% gross margin, a fat replacement-demand tailwind from the refrigerant-regulation cycle — but FY25 revenue actually *fell* 2.7%, the residential segment is still working through a construction downturn, and at 26× trailing / 23× forward… |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | $218 | +38.8% | $205 ($150–$265) | — | Old Dominion is the best-run less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in North America — a genuine fortress balance sheet, an industry-leading sub-73 operating ratio and ~20% returns on capital — but revenue has now fallen three straight years in a freight downturn, and at 45× trailing / 40× forward EPS… |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | +9.5% | $1010 ($760–$1180) | — | Parker-Hannifin is a best-in-class diversified-industrial compounder — record 23%+ segment margins, 70 straight years of dividend increases, a record $12.5B backlog and an accelerating aerospace franchise — but at $963 it already trades near our base-case fair value (~$1,010) and slightly *above*… |
| URI United Rentals, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | +35.7% | $1090 ($720–$1450) | — | United Rentals is the North American equipment-rental leader — a genuinely well-run, cash-generative cyclical (44% adjusted-EBITDA margin, 28% ROE, disciplined buybacks) — but revenue growth has cooled to the mid-single digits, the stock sits near an all-time high at a fair-to-full ~28× earnings… |
| GNRC Generac Holdings Inc. | Hold | 7 | 6 | 5 | — | +85.3% | $278 ($175–$360) | — | Generac is a high-quality franchise (the dominant US home-standby generator brand) trapped in a genuinely cyclical demand pattern: FY25 revenue actually *fell* 2% to $4.21B and GAAP EPS collapsed to $2.69 on a Q4 loss, yet the stock trades at 78× trailing and near all-time highs on hopes for a… |
| BA The Boeing Company | Hold | 8 | 6 | 3 | — | +4.3% | $235 ($130–$330) | — | Boeing is a genuine recovery story — a record $695B backlog, deliveries and revenue climbing, and losses narrowing toward breakeven — but it is still burning cash (FY25 FCF −$1.9B), carrying $43.5B net debt at 5.2× EBITDA, and trading at ~55× FY27 estimated EPS, so the market is already paying for… |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | Hold | 3 | 5 | 2 | — | +19.6% | $420 ($305–$505) | — | Snap-on is a genuinely elite, wide-moat cash machine — ~60% van-market share, 51% gross margin, 17% ROE, a net-*cash* balance sheet — but it is a low-single-digit grower trading at ~21× with the stock pinned at its 52-week high on an overbought RSI, so the quality is real and the price already… |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | -6.2% | $64 ($46–$84) | — | AOS is a genuinely well-run, cash-generative water-technology franchise (28% ROE, 39% gross margin, net-debt/EBITDA 0.6×) trading at a reasonable 16.7× — but it is barely growing (FY25 revenue +0.3%, management just *lowered* FY26 guidance on China and North-American softness), the stock is below… |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Wash | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +12.5% | $158 ($120–$195) | — | Expeditors is a genuinely elite, capital-light freight forwarder — 37% ROE, net cash, decades of shareholder-friendly buybacks — but it is a cyclical, low-single-digit grower now trading at 28× earnings and *above* the Street's own price target, so the quality is real and the entry price is not… |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | +12.8% | $560 ($430–$690) | — | A cheap, low-beta, dividend-paying defense prime with a fortress backlog and an irreplaceable franchise (F-35, missile defense, Space) — but 2025 was a *margin-shock* year (net income fell to $5.0B on program charges), growth is low-single-digit, and at only +3% to our base-case fair value the… |
| NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | — | -3.7% | $560 ($420–$640) | — | A blue-chip defense prime trading at a reasonable ~17× trailing / 12× EV-EBITDA after a ~28% drawdown, with a negative beta, a $96B backlog, and reaffirmed 2026 guidance — but the growth is genuinely modest (~5% EPS CAGR) and the fixed-price B-21/Sentinel programs have already burned shareholders… |
| PAYX Paychex, Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 2 | $106 | -5.2% | $108 ($82–$135) | — | Paychex is a best-in-class, cash-gushing payroll/HCM utility (46% EBITDA margin, 45% ROE, 4.2% dividend) that just absorbed Paycor — but the stock is down 28% on the year, the multiple still isn't cheap for mid-single-digit organic growth, and there is zero expert conviction in the Synthos KB, so… |
| TXT Textron Inc. | Hold | 4 | 5 | 3 | — | +6.1% | $98 ($72–$124) | — | A cheap, well-run, low-beta multi-industrial (business jets, Bell helicopters, defense systems, and an Industrial segment now slated for separation) trading at ~15× forward earnings — the value is real but so is the ceiling: ~3% revenue growth means the whole upside case rests on the announced… |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | Hold | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | -8.2% | $178 ($130–$225) | — | Avery Dennison is a high-quality, wide-moat label-materials leader trading at a reasonable ~19× earnings with a 2.3% dividend and a real RFID growth kicker — but it is a mature, cyclical ~4%-top-line business with no expert conviction behind it and a stock that has *lagged the market by ~28 points… |
| HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, I | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | -14.3% | $330 ($225–$430) | — | HII owns an essentially unassailable monopoly building America's aircraft carriers and submarines with a $54B backlog (>4× annual revenue), but the business runs at ~5% operating margins, guides to only ~6% revenue growth, carries 2.3× net-debt/EBITDA, and has burned through a 36% drawdown on… |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | $230 | -41.1% | $235 ($175–$300) | — | Honeywell is a cheap, low-beta, cash-generative industrial conglomerate in the middle of splitting itself into three — a classic "sum-of-the-parts" value setup where the reward (re-rating of Aerospace) is real but so is the execution risk, and with zero expert coverage and only mid-single-digit… |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | Hold | 5 | 5 | 3 | — | +11.8% | $330 ($250–$415) | — | Norfolk Southern is a high-quality, wide-moat Eastern US railroad executing a credible self-help operating-ratio story (adjusted OR ~68–69%), but it trades at ~27× trailing / 26× forward for only ~5% revenue and ~7% EPS growth, carries 2.85× net-debt/EBITDA, and its risk/reward is now dominated by… |
| PNR Pentair plc | Hold | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | -26.3% | $88 ($58–$112) | — | Pentair is a well-run, cash-generative water and pool business trading at a reasonable (not cheap) ~14× forward earnings, but revenue barely grows (~3–4%/yr), the end markets are cyclical and mid-downturn, and the stock is in a 32% drawdown — a fine *Watch*/value-satellite candidate, not a… |
| WM Waste Management, Inc. | Hold | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | +4.9% | $235 ($185–$285) | — | WM is a genuinely elite, recession-proof toll road on North American waste — 29% EBITDA margins, 29% ROE, wide moat, low beta — but at 33× trailing earnings and 3.1× net-debt/EBITDA the price already reflects the quality, leaving a ~5% revenue / ~12% EPS grower with little valuation cushion and no… |
| CARR Carrier Global Corporation | Hold | 6 | 5 | 4 | — | +32.6% | $72 ($50–$92) | — | Carrier has finished a two-year transformation into a pure-play intelligent-climate company (Fire & Security and Access divested, Viessmann bought), and the market is already paying a growth multiple (45× trailing, 22× EV/EBITDA) for a business whose FY25 revenue actually *fell* ~3% — the bull case… |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +18.1% | $162 ($88–$204) | — | C.H. Robinson is a genuinely well-managed, asset-light freight broker executing a real cost-out and "Lean AI" turnaround — adjusted EPS rose 15% in Q1'26 despite flat volumes — but the stock has already re-rated to 38× trailing / 26× forward on that story, revenue actually *shrank 8%* in FY25, and… |
| DE Deere & Company | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +33.4% | $640 ($470–$780) | — | Deere is a genuinely elite industrial franchise — a widening precision-ag moat, ~18% ROE, a dealer-funded capital-light core — but the stock trades at 35× trailing EPS in the middle of an agricultural down-cycle (revenue already −26% from the FY23 peak, Large Ag guided down another 15–20%), so you… |
| LUV Southwest Airlines Co. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +21.6% | $52 ($30–$72) | — | Southwest's 18-month "transformation" (assigned seating, extra-legroom, bag fees, Rapid Rewards monetization) is now fully implemented and *is* showing up in the numbers — Q1'26 RASM +11%, operating margin +8 points YoY — but the market has already re-rated the stock +50% in twelve months to fair… |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | +21.2% | $465 ($355–$585) | — | Rockwell is a genuinely high-quality, wide-moat US automation franchise (52% gross margin, ~30% ROE, growing software/ARR mix) that is executing a clean cyclical recovery — but at ~36× forward earnings for only ~5% revenue growth, the market already pays full price, so we rate it Watch: a name to… |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, In | Hold | 7 | 5 | 3 | — | +47.1% | $240 ($135–$320) | — | J.B. Hunt is a best-in-class North-American intermodal and logistics operator with a genuine cost-and-scale moat — but the stock has rallied ~89% in twelve months to 44× trailing earnings on a business whose revenue has *fallen three years running*, so we rate it Watch: own the operator, wait for a… |
| CSX CSX Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | $49 | +34.9% | $47 ($36–$58) | — | CSX is a wide-moat Eastern-US railroad whose earnings have gone the *wrong* way for three years (revenue $14.85B→$14.09B, EPS $1.95→$1.54), yet the stock has rallied 46% in twelve months to the point where even the Street's price target ($47.15) sits below the price action — a great business, but priced… |
| MAS Masco Corporation | Hold | 5 | 4 | 2 | — | +30.4% | $82 ($62–$100) | — | Masco is a well-run, high-margin, cash-generative maker of Behr paint and Delta/hansgrohe plumbing whose earnings grow mainly because it shrinks its share count — but the top line is flat-to-down (FY25 revenue −3.4%), the stock now sits *at its 52-week high on a 78 RSI*, and the fair value lands… |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | -17.7% | $93 ($55–$135) | — | BLDR is the #1 US supplier of structural building products to pro homebuilders — a genuinely good, share-gaining, cash-generative franchise that has bought back half its shares since 2021 — but it is a *deep cyclical* caught mid-downturn (FY25 revenue −7.4%, Q1'26 a net loss), so the stock is cheap… |
| DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +33.6% | $95 ($60–$125) | — | Delta is the highest-quality US network airline — premium brand, loyal hub franchise, an investment-grade balance sheet rebuilt post-COVID, and a genuinely cheap EV/EBITDA (7.7×) — but after a +89% 12-month run the stock now sits near its 52-week high at an overbought RSI of 83, forward EPS… |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | Hold | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | +34.6% | $330 ($210–$435) | — | FedEx is a cheap, cyclical, self-help story: FY26 revenue $94.7B and adjusted EPS $20.24 with the DRIVE cost program beating its $1B savings goal, now simplified by spinning off FedEx Freight (June 1, 2026) — but it is a mature, GDP-linked, ~5%-margin, sub-WACC-return network, so the reward is a… |
| MMM 3M Company | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +0.2% | $162 ($110–$200) | — | Post-Solventum-spinoff 3M is a smaller (~$25B revenue), cleaner, self-help industrial trading at a reasonable ~18× forward earnings with margins recovering and cash returning to shareholders — but it grows organically at ~1–3%, carries a multi-billion-dollar litigation liability that will drain… |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +23.7% | $92 ($66–$118) | — | Stanley Black & Decker is a cheap-on-recovery-earnings, dividend-paying tools cyclical mid-way through a self-help margin and deleveraging program — the numbers work *if* adjusted EPS climbs from ~$2.65 GAAP toward management's $4.90–5.70 range, but revenue is flat, leverage is high, and there is… |
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | Hold | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | +11.6% | $115 ($77–$129) | — | UPS is a cheap, 5.9%-yielding industrial that has been *shrinking* — revenue fell to $88.7B in FY25 from $100B in 2022, EPS halved from $13.26 to $6.56, and the dividend now exceeds free cash flow — so the stock is priced near fair value for a self-help turnaround that has to prove margins can… |
| PCAR PACCAR Inc | Avoid | 5 | 4 | 2 | $120 | +9.1% | $118 ($88–$150) | — | PACCAR is a genuinely well-run, financially fortress-like heavy-truck manufacturer (Kenworth, Peterbilt, DAF) caught in the down-leg of a normal industry cycle — FY25 revenue fell 16% and EPS fell 43% off the FY23 peak — so the stock looks cheap on a *trailing* multiple but sits near mid-cycle fair… |